Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Blue Owl Capital Inc stock $6.42, price $10.65, that is 39.7% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.14 – $24.44 · fair‑value band $2.45 – $10.70 · the $10.65 price screens above the $6.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager in the United States. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer holistic framework of capital solutions to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants.
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The company also provides private financing solutions, such as direct lending products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; alternative credit; investment grade credit; liquid credit; and other credit solutions.
In addition, the company offers GP strategic capital products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority stakes, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority stakes; and real estate products that focuses on acquiring triple net lease real estate by investment grade or creditworthy tenants, as well as real estate debt finance through net lease and real estate credit.
It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles and long-dated private funds. Blue Owl Capital Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) currently trades at $10.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.42, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.42 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $10.65 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.50, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.45 (bear) to $10.70 (bull), the price of $10.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Blue Owl Capital Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $824M in FY2021, a compound +36.6%/yr. Reported net income was $78.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $16.6B Large · P/E ratio 75.9 · P/S ratio 2.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.1400 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −40%, OWL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.45Fair Value $6.42Bull$10.70
Price $10.65 · Downside -39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyCraig PackerCo-President, Director125,000 shares at $15.06$1.9MDec 2, 2025
BuyMarc S LipschultzCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director158,000 shares at $15.06$2.4MDec 2, 2025
BuyDouglas I OstroverCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director158,000 shares at $15.06$2.4MDec 2, 2025
BuyAlan KirshenbaumChief Financial Officer33,670 shares at $14.87$500,673Dec 1, 2025
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.2%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−24% → 22%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Modest advantages in scale support the asset management platform, yet weak profitability metrics and high leverage remain the main weak points that may pressure margins.
Main risk: Ongoing lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny could force Blue Owl to adjust valuation practices or reduce advisory fees in its BDC funds, squeezing margins on its core direct lending products.
Bull case: Blue Owl could leverage its insurance platform expansion and data center partnerships to secure longer-term capital commitments that offset any pressure from litigation or rival BDCs.
Bear case: Persistent legal challenges and competition from Blackstone and Apollo might lead to sustained outflows from Blue Owl's retail credit funds and force lower fees across its direct lending business.
Blue Owl is expanding its insurance platform with a balance-sheet-light strategy and new leadership to attract longer-term capital. Private credit redemptions are easing in some funds while data center and real assets activity continues. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will insurance assets provide steadier fee growth than the firm stands to lose if tech-related credit risks persist?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 592 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−39.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)31.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)9.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)75.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.55× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)21.01× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow53.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA59.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.17× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)25· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Blue Owl Capital Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OWL
Frequently asked questions
Is Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.42 versus a price of $10.65, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OWL?
Our model-based fair value for Blue Owl Capital Inc is $6.42 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.65.
What is the quality score of OWL?
Blue Owl Capital Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.42 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.45, optimistic scenario $10.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Blue Owl Capital Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.42, about 40% lower versus a price of $10.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.45, optimistic scenario $10.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Blue Owl Capital Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Blue Owl Capital Inc pay a dividend?
Blue Owl Capital Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Blue Owl Capital Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +63.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OWL use?
Our models discount Blue Owl Capital Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Blue Owl Capital Inc that is -3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Blue Owl Capital Inc grew +63.0 % a year. The price currently implies -3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Blue Owl Capital Inc (-3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.34 %: that much free cash flow Blue Owl Capital Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Blue Owl Capital Inc it is $6.42 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $10.65. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Blue Owl Capital Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, OWL trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.65, fair value $6.42, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OWL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.42). For Blue Owl Capital Inc the two are $4.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Blue Owl Capital Inc worth?
The market values Blue Owl Capital Inc at about $16.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $10.65; our models calculate a fair value of $6.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OWL?
Our models span a range for Blue Owl Capital Inc: cautious scenario $2.45, base $6.42, optimistic $10.70 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $10.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OWL?
Blue Owl Capital Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 7.6, P/S 21.0, EV/EBITDA 59.0.
What is the PEG ratio of OWL?
The PEG ratio of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 0.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Blue Owl Capital Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 1.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OWL from its 52-week high?
Blue Owl Capital Inc trades at $10.65, about 33% below its 52-week high of $15.97 and 32% above the low of $8.04 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Blue Owl Capital Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Blue Owl Capital Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $10.65, calculated fair value $6.42 (−40%), Quality Score 43/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OWL calculated?
We run Blue Owl Capital Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Blue Owl Capital Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $10.65. Our model-based fair value is $6.42, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Blue Owl Capital Inc right now?
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.45 to $10.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Blue Owl Capital Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The market capitalisation of Blue Owl Capital Inc is $16.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 2.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Earnings per share at Blue Owl Capital Inc are $0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 75.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The dividend yield of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 9.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The net margin of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
The operating margin of Blue Owl Capital Inc is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Revenue at Blue Owl Capital Inc is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)?
Earnings per share at Blue Owl Capital Inc are growing +202% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) carry?
The net debt of Blue Owl Capital Inc is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026