Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.8B
Patria Investments Limited
PAX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $5.14 to $5.24 (+1.9%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.13 – $17.15 · fair‑value band $3.93 – $6.55 · the $11.53 price screens above the $5.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Patria Investments Limited (PAX) currently trades at $11.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.24, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Patria Investments Limited generated revenue of $399M at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 22.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at $145M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.93 (bear case) to $6.55 (bull case); at $11.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -55%, PAX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($33.84) versus Asset-Based ($2.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments.
Full company description
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Patria Investments Limited reported revenue of $384M in FY2025 versus $236M in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was $85.6M in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
PAX screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Patria targets $225M-$245M 2026 FRE while expecting 2026 FRE margin modestly below 58%-60%
- Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Fundraising and ...
- Patria Investments (PAX) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Patria Reports Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results
Peer Group
Asset Management · 973 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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