Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc $5.26, price $18.29, upside -71.2%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.01 – $19.98 · fair‑value band $2.96 – $7.17 · the $18.29 price screens above the $5.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Pathfinder Bank that provides various banking and financial products and services in the United States. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, and money market deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and demand and time deposits.
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Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Pathfinder Bank that provides various banking and financial products and services in the United States. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, and money market deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and demand and time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate, commercial loans, residential real estate, construction, and tax-exempt loans; home equity loans and junior liens; and consumer loans comprising automobile, recreational vehicles, and unsecured personal loans, as well as unsecured lines of credit and loans secured by deposit accounts. It is also involved in the property, casualty, and life insurance brokerage business. The company primarily serves individuals, families, small to mid-size businesses, and municipalities. Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Oswego, New York.
Stock analysis
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) currently trades at $18.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.26, implying the stock looks roughly 247.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $12.76 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $18.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.27, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.96 (bear) to $7.17 (bull), the price of $18.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $79.1M in FY2025 versus $51.0M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $116M · P/S ratio 3.52 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin 27.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −71%, PBHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.96Fair Value $5.26Bull $7.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.3% (2020) → −5.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.96× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)3.88× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.26 versus a price of $18.29, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PBHC?
Our model-based fair value for Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is $5.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.29.
What is the quality score of PBHC?
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $7.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pathfinder Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.26, about −71% upside versus a price of $18.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $7.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Pathfinder Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pathfinder Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PBHC use?
Our models discount Pathfinder Bancorp Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pathfinder Bancorp Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.62 %: that much free cash flow Pathfinder Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pathfinder Bancorp Inc it is $5.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.29. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pathfinder Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PBHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.29, fair value $5.26, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PBHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.26). For Pathfinder Bancorp Inc the two are $13.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pathfinder Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Pathfinder Bancorp Inc at about $116M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.29; our models calculate a fair value of $5.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PBHC?
Our models span a range for Pathfinder Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $2.96, base $5.26, optimistic $7.17 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.0%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PBHC from its 52-week high?
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc trades at $18.29, at its 52-week high of $18.29 and 52% above the low of $12.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pathfinder Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pathfinder Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.29, calculated fair value $5.26 (−71%), Quality Score 35/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PBHC calculated?
We run Pathfinder Bancorp Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Pathfinder Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $18.29. Our model-based fair value is $5.26, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pathfinder Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($2.96 to $7.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) come from?
Earnings per share at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.6 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The market capitalisation of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is $116M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is 3.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Earnings per share at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc are $−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The dividend yield of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The net margin of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is −4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
The operating margin of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Revenue at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is growing −4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC)?
Earnings per share at Pathfinder Bancorp Inc are growing +4.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pathfinder Bancorp Inc (PBHC) carry?
The net debt of Pathfinder Bancorp Inc is $95.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026