Philogen SpA (PHIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Philogen SpA €70.20, price €23.40, upside +200.0%, quality 83 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.21 – €26.55 · fair‑value band €45.72 – €138.57 · the €23.40 price screens below the €70.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Philogen S.p.A., a biotechnology company, engages in the research and development of drugs for oncology and chronic inflammatory diseases in Italy, Switzerland, the United States, and the European Union.
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Philogen S.p.A., a biotechnology company, engages in the research and development of drugs for oncology and chronic inflammatory diseases in Italy, Switzerland, the United States, and the European Union. The company develops Nidlegy which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of advanced melanoma and Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of basal cell carcinoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma; Fibromun which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of soft-tissue sarcoma and Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of glioblastoma; Darleukin which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer; Dekavil which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of chronic inflammatory disorders; and Dodekin which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of various solid tumors. It is also involved in the development of small molecule products, including OncoFAP which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of solid tumors; OncoACP3 which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of prostate cancer; and OncoCAIX which is in Phase 1 trial for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma and other hypoxic tumors. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Sovicille, Italy.
Stock analysis
Philogen SpA (PHIL) currently trades at €23.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €70.20, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €265.10 per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the €23.40 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €41.80, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €45.72 (bear) to €138.57 (bull), the price of €23.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Philogen SpA reported revenue of €314M in FY2025 versus €2.5M in FY2021, a compound +235.0%/yr. Reported net income was €230M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €942M · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 3.08 · EPS (TTM) €5.70 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 73.1% · Return on equity 89.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 200%, PHIL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €45.72Fair Value €70.20Bull €138.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+324.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+136.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+131.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−253.9% (2020) → 82.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)90% · Top 25%
Return on assets53% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)72% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)88% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth311% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Philogen SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PHIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Philogen SpA (PHIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €70.20 versus a price of €23.40, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PHIL?
Our model-based fair value for Philogen SpA is €70.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €23.40.
What is the quality score of PHIL?
Philogen SpA has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €70.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €45.72, optimistic scenario €138.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Philogen SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €70.20, about +200% upside versus a price of €23.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €45.72, optimistic scenario €138.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Philogen SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €320M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Philogen SpA pay a dividend?
Philogen SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Philogen SpA would have to grow free cash flow by -19.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +131.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PHIL use?
Our models discount Philogen SpA at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Philogen SpA that is -19.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Philogen SpA (PHIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Philogen SpA grew +131.0 % a year. The price currently implies -19.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Philogen SpA (PHIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Philogen SpA (-19.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.06 %: that much free cash flow Philogen SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Philogen SpA it is €70.20 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €23.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Philogen SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PHIL trades below its calculated fair value: price €23.40, fair value €70.20, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PHIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€23.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€70.20). For Philogen SpA the two are €46.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Philogen SpA worth?
The market values Philogen SpA at about €942M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €23.40; our models calculate a fair value of €70.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PHIL?
Our models span a range for Philogen SpA: cautious scenario €45.72, base €70.20, optimistic €138.57 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €23.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PHIL?
Philogen SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €70.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Philogen SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 89.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PHIL from its 52-week high?
Philogen SpA trades at €23.40, about 9% below its 52-week high of €25.80 and 22% above the low of €19.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €70.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Philogen SpA?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Philogen SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €23.40, calculated fair value €70.20 (+200%), Quality Score 83/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PHIL calculated?
We run Philogen SpA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €70.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Philogen SpA currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €23.40. Our model-based fair value is €70.20, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Philogen SpA right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€45.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€45.72 to €138.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Philogen SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The market capitalisation of Philogen SpA is €942M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Philogen SpA is 3.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Earnings per share at Philogen SpA are €5.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The dividend yield of Philogen SpA is 3.0% (payout 12.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The net margin of Philogen SpA is 73.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Philogen SpA is 89.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Philogen SpA is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
The operating margin of Philogen SpA is 87.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Revenue at Philogen SpA is growing +311% versus a year earlier (3y avg +137%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Philogen SpA (PHIL)?
Earnings per share at Philogen SpA are growing +300% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Philogen SpA (PHIL) hold?
Philogen SpA holds more cash than debt, €720K net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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