Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC $11.80, price $12.39, upside -4.7%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.30 – $12.75 · fair‑value band $5.68 – $18.69 · the $12.39 price screens above the $11.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Standard Life plc operates in the long-term savings and retirement business in Europe. It operates through Retirement Solutions, Pensions & Savings, With-Profits, and Europe & Other segments.
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Standard Life plc operates in the long-term savings and retirement business in Europe. It operates through Retirement Solutions, Pensions & Savings, With-Profits, and Europe & Other segments. The company offers defined contribution workplace pensions, retail savings for retirement, international bonds, and legacy savings and pension products; defined benefit pension income, income drawdown and lifetime annuities, fixed-term annuities, and smoothed managed funds. It also offers new and in-force individual annuity and pension risk transfer contracts written within shareholder funds; U.K. individual annuity; workplace pensions and self-invested personal pensions; new and in-force insurance and investment unit-linked products; and protection products. The company offers its products under the Standard Life, SunLife, Phoenix Life, Phoenix Wealth, Phoenix Corporate Investment Services, and ReAssure brands. Standard Life plc was formerly known as Phoenix Group Holdings plc and changed its name to Standard Life plc in February 2026. The company was founded in 1782 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) currently trades at $12.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.80, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $5.68 (bear) to $18.69 (bull), the price of $12.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC reported revenue of £18.2B in FY2025 versus £23.2B in FY2021, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was −£443M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $16.7B · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6300 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −5%, PNXGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.68Fair Value $11.80Bull $18.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.6% (2019) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.3% a year for the price.
Compare Phoenix Group Holdings PLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth128% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity12.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Phoenix Group Holdings PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNXGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.80 versus a price of $12.39, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PNXGF?
Our model-based fair value for Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is $11.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.39.
What is the quality score of PNXGF?
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $18.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Phoenix Group Holdings PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.80, about −5% upside versus a price of $12.39 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $18.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Phoenix Group Holdings PLC pay a dividend?
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Phoenix Group Holdings PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -24.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PNXGF use?
Our models discount Phoenix Group Holdings PLC at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Phoenix Group Holdings PLC that is -24.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC grew -3.5 % a year. The price currently implies -24.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (-24.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.02 %: that much free cash flow Phoenix Group Holdings PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Phoenix Group Holdings PLC it is $11.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.39. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Phoenix Group Holdings PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PNXGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.39, fair value $11.80, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNXGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.80). For Phoenix Group Holdings PLC the two are $0.5870 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Phoenix Group Holdings PLC worth?
The market values Phoenix Group Holdings PLC at about $16.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.39; our models calculate a fair value of $11.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNXGF?
Our models span a range for Phoenix Group Holdings PLC: cautious scenario $5.68, base $11.80, optimistic $18.69 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −22.3%, debt of 12.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNXGF from its 52-week high?
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC trades at $12.39, about 3% below its 52-week high of $12.75 and 50% above the low of $8.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Phoenix Group Holdings PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Phoenix Group Holdings PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.39, calculated fair value $11.80 (−5%), Quality Score 40/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNXGF calculated?
We run Phoenix Group Holdings PLC through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Phoenix Group Holdings PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $12.39. Our model-based fair value is $11.80, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Phoenix Group Holdings PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.68 to $18.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The market capitalisation of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is $16.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Earnings per share at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC are $−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The dividend yield of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is 4.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The net margin of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is −22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
The operating margin of Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Revenue at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC is growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF)?
Earnings per share at Phoenix Group Holdings PLC are growing +488% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (PNXGF) hold?
Phoenix Group Holdings PLC holds more cash than debt, $3.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026