Porch Group (PRCH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.4B
Porch Group
PRCH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 82% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5250 – $25.66 · fair‑value band $2.10 – $3.50 · the $15.85 price screens above the $2.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Porch Group (PRCH) currently trades at $15.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.80, implying the stock looks roughly 82.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Porch Group generated revenue of $499M at a net margin of -3.3%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $340M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.10 (bear case) to $3.50 (bull case); at $15.85, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 149% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -82%, PRCH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($2.80) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Porch Group, Inc. develops and sells software and data solutions, manages insurance services, and provides consumer services related to homeownership in the United States. It operates through four segments: Insurance Services, Software & Data, Consumer Services, and the Reciprocal Segment.
Full company description
Porch Group, Inc. develops and sells software and data solutions, manages insurance services, and provides consumer services related to homeownership in the United States. It operates through four segments: Insurance Services, Software & Data, Consumer Services, and the Reciprocal Segment. The Insurance Services segment manages and operates Porch Reciprocal Exchange, providing services including underwriting, policy renewal, risk management, portfolio management, financial oversight, and investment guideline setting. The Software & Data segment offers subscription and transactional software for inspection, mortgage, title, and roofing companies, as well as data products for insurance and other companies, including home inspection software, title and mortgage software, home factors property insights, and mover marketing products; measurement software for roofers; and move and post-move services. The Consumer Services segment provides warranty products under Porch Warranty and other brands, and moving-related services such as moving labor, TV/Internet, and security setup. The Reciprocal Segment, managed but not owned by Porch, includes Homeowners of America and Porch Reciprocal Exchange, which provides consumers with insurance to protect their homes, through premiums collected on policies. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Porch Group reported revenue of $482M in FY2025 versus $192M in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.3M in FY2025.
PRCH screens 82% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
- Notable Wednesday Option Activity: EOLS, PRCH, ZS
- CEO Sells 120,000 Shares of Porch Group Stock Worth $1.2 Million
- Porch Group Mixes SaaS and Insurance — a tough combo to win with
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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