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Porch Group Inc (PRCH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Porch Group Inc $8.15, price $16.61, upside -50.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US7332451043

PG Porch Group Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Porch Group Inc

PRCH · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $8.15 · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 56/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +46.2 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -3.3% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 3.2%
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $3.41 to $14.28
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$25.66 $0.5250 Fair Value $8.15 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5250 – $25.66 · fair‑value band $3.41 – $14.28 · the $16.61 price screens above the $8.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Porch Group, Inc. develops and sells software and data solutions, manages insurance services, and provides consumer services related to homeownership in the United States. It operates through four segments: Insurance Services, Software & Data, Consumer Services, and the Reciprocal Segment.

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Porch Group, Inc. develops and sells software and data solutions, manages insurance services, and provides consumer services related to homeownership in the United States. It operates through four segments: Insurance Services, Software & Data, Consumer Services, and the Reciprocal Segment. The Insurance Services segment manages and operates Porch Reciprocal Exchange, providing services including underwriting, policy renewal, risk management, portfolio management, financial oversight, and investment guideline setting. The Software & Data segment offers subscription and transactional software for inspection, mortgage, title, and roofing companies, as well as data products for insurance and other companies, including home inspection software, title and mortgage software, home factors property insights, and mover marketing products; measurement software for roofers; and move and post-move services. The Consumer Services segment provides warranty products under Porch Warranty and other brands, and moving-related services such as moving labor, TV/Internet, and security setup. The Reciprocal Segment, managed but not owned by Porch, includes Homeowners of America and Porch Reciprocal Exchange, which provides consumers with insurance to protect their homes, through premiums collected on policies. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Stock analysis

Porch Group Inc (PRCH) currently trades at $16.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.15, implying the stock looks roughly 103.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.18 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $16.61 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.70, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.41 (bear) to $14.28 (bull), the price of $16.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Porch Group Inc reported revenue of $482M in FY2025 versus $192M in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1500 · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity −15,311% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.9% · Operating margin 9.7% · Revenue (TTM) $499M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 160% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −51%, PRCH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.41 Fair Value $8.15 Bull $14.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $7.86 $12.86 $27.83 75
Growth DCF $7.17 $13.90 $26.28 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.34 $10.92 $21.82 70
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $7.86 $12.86 $27.83 75
Owner Earnings $3.61 $10.74 $23.96 69
5Y Revenue Exit $2.71 $5.62 $11.60 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.34 $10.92 $21.82 70
5Y P/E Exit $2.49 $6.94 $12.59 66
10Y Revenue Exit $4.37 $10.18 $12.98 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.23 $15.33 $30.51 63
10Y P/E Exit $4.33 $9.75 $17.75 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.9500 $6.64 $9.32 63
Lynch FV $2.59 $3.70 $4.81 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.59 $3.70 $4.81 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.94 $3.92 $4.90 63
P/S Multiple $1.79 $2.38 $2.98 58
EV/EBIT $2.98 $4.99 $6.99 64
EV/EBITDA $4.02 $6.38 $8.73 66
EV/Revenue $0.0100 $1.31 $2.62 46
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.17 $13.90 $26.28 74
Rev-Margin DCF $2.80 $6.88 $14.61 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.70 $5.29 $6.87 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−58.4% (2020) → 7.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.7% a year for the price and +9.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+16.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+14.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+12.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.0%

PRCH screens 104% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −52% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 3.55× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 34.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 28.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)78 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $206.94 $160.25 −23%
Chubb Limited CB $335.77 $234.73 −30%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $362.01 $274.42 −24%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $229.50 $316.11 +38%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.17 ¥9.57 +17%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$254.29 C$167.46 −34%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,260 C$3,226 +43%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $165.83 $146.70 −12%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $68.17 $47.08 −31%
QBE Insurance Group QBE A$23.01 A$13.78 −40%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Porch Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PRCH

Frequently asked questions

Is Porch Group Inc (PRCH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.15 versus a price of $16.61, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PRCH?
Our model-based fair value for Porch Group Inc is $8.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.61.
What is the quality score of PRCH?
Porch Group Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.41, optimistic scenario $14.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Porch Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.15, about −51% upside versus a price of $16.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.41, optimistic scenario $14.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Porch Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $499M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Porch Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +32.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +46.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PRCH use?
Our models discount Porch Group Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 3.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Porch Group Inc that is +32.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Porch Group Inc (PRCH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Porch Group Inc grew +46.2 % a year. The price currently implies +32.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Porch Group Inc (PRCH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Porch Group Inc (+32.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.02 %: that much free cash flow Porch Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Porch Group Inc it is $8.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.61. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Porch Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PRCH trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.61, fair value $8.15, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PRCH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.15). For Porch Group Inc the two are $8.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Porch Group Inc worth?
The market values Porch Group Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.61; our models calculate a fair value of $8.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PRCH?
Our models span a range for Porch Group Inc: cautious scenario $3.41, base $8.15, optimistic $14.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Porch Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PRCH from its 52-week high?
Porch Group Inc trades at $16.61, about 9% below its 52-week high of $18.30 and 160% above the low of $6.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Porch Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Porch Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.61, calculated fair value $8.15 (−51%), Quality Score 56/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PRCH calculated?
We run Porch Group Inc through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Porch Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.61. Our model-based fair value is $8.15, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Porch Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($3.41 to $14.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Porch Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The market capitalisation of Porch Group Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Porch Group Inc is 2.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Earnings per share at Porch Group Inc are $−0.1500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The net margin of Porch Group Inc is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Porch Group Inc is −15,311% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Porch Group Inc is −9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
The operating margin of Porch Group Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Porch Group Inc (PRCH)?
Revenue at Porch Group Inc is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Porch Group Inc (PRCH) carry?
The net debt of Porch Group Inc is $340M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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