Rand Capital Corp (RAND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Rand Capital Corp $6.90, price $9.99, upside -31.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.43 – $24.58 · fair‑value band $3.25 – $13.01 · the $9.99 price screens above the $6.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses.
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Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses. It does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It prefers to invest in software, professional services, manufacturing, consumer, healthcare, automotive and public d stocks. It prefers to invest in East or Midwest U.S. operations sectors. It typically invests between $0.75 million and $5 million with initial target size of $1.5 million. It seeks to invest in companies having more than $10 million in revenue or having excess of $1.5 million and up to $5 million in EBITDA. It prefers to be a minority stake and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period up to five years.
Stock analysis
Rand Capital Corp (RAND) currently trades at $9.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.90, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $3.25 (bear) to $13.01 (bull), the price of $9.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rand Capital Corp reported revenue of $4.5M in FY2025 versus $17.2M in FY2021, a compound −28.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $29.4M · P/S ratio 5.35 · EPS (TTM) $−3.14 · Dividend yield 11.6% · Net margin −162% · Return on equity −15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% · Operating margin 50.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −31%, RAND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.25Fair Value $6.90Bull $13.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−60.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
59.9% (2020) → −176.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−162% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−38% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.56× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)5.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF2.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG3.13× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 80
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rand Capital Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAND
Frequently asked questions
Is Rand Capital Corp (RAND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.90 versus a price of $9.99, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RAND?
Our model-based fair value for Rand Capital Corp is $6.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.99.
What is the quality score of RAND?
Rand Capital Corp has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.25, optimistic scenario $13.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rand Capital Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.90, about −31% upside versus a price of $9.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.25, optimistic scenario $13.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Rand Capital Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Rand Capital Corp pay a dividend?
Rand Capital Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rand Capital Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -22.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RAND use?
Our models discount Rand Capital Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rand Capital Corp that is -22.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rand Capital Corp (RAND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rand Capital Corp grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies -22.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rand Capital Corp (RAND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rand Capital Corp (-22.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.24 %: that much free cash flow Rand Capital Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rand Capital Corp it is $6.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.99. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rand Capital Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RAND trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.99, fair value $6.90, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RAND?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.90). For Rand Capital Corp the two are $3.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rand Capital Corp worth?
The market values Rand Capital Corp at about $29.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.99; our models calculate a fair value of $6.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RAND?
Our models span a range for Rand Capital Corp: cautious scenario $3.25, base $6.90, optimistic $13.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RAND?
The PEG ratio of Rand Capital Corp is 3.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rand Capital Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −15.9%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RAND from its 52-week high?
Rand Capital Corp trades at $9.99, about 36% below its 52-week high of $15.53 and 2% above the low of $9.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rand Capital Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rand Capital Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.99, calculated fair value $6.90 (−31%), Quality Score 52/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RAND calculated?
We run Rand Capital Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rand Capital Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.99. Our model-based fair value is $6.90, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rand Capital Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($3.25 to $13.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Rand Capital Corp (RAND) come from?
Earnings per share at Rand Capital Corp grew −3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.3 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rand Capital Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The market capitalisation of Rand Capital Corp is $29.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rand Capital Corp is 5.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Earnings per share at Rand Capital Corp are $−3.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The dividend yield of Rand Capital Corp is 11.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The net margin of Rand Capital Corp is −162% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rand Capital Corp is −15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rand Capital Corp is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
The operating margin of Rand Capital Corp is 50.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Revenue at Rand Capital Corp is growing −38.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +87.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rand Capital Corp (RAND)?
Earnings per share at Rand Capital Corp are growing −45.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Rand Capital Corp (RAND) hold?
Rand Capital Corp holds more cash than debt, $4.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026