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Rio Tinto Group (RION) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Rio Tinto Group MXN 1,047, price MXN 1,700, upside -38.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Rio Tinto Group
RION · MXStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 1,047 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−38.4%)
!Quality 55/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!0.2% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Wide moat 69/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 839.11 MXN – 1,921 MXN · fair‑value band 677.02 MXN – 1,501 MXN · the 1,700 MXN price screens above the 1,047 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.
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Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Rio Tinto Group (RION) currently trades at 1,700 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,047 MXN, 38.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,892 MXN per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the 1,700 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 465.42 MXN, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 677.02 MXN (bear) to 1,501 MXN (bull), the price of 1,700 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rio Tinto Group reported revenue of $57.6B in FY2025 versus $63.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $10.0B in FY2025, compounding −17.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8T MXN (≈ $151B) · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 2.55 · EPS (TTM) 106.56 MXN · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −38%, RION screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 677.02 MXN
Fair Value 1,047 MXN
Bull 1,501 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (77.54 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
501.59 MXN
773.37 MXN
1,153 MXN
79
Growth DCF
523.37 MXN
780.29 MXN
1,126 MXN
77
Owner Earnings
467.86 MXN
725.77 MXN
1,086 MXN
75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
501.59 MXN
773.37 MXN
1,153 MXN
79
Owner Earnings
467.86 MXN
725.77 MXN
1,086 MXN
75
5Y Revenue Exit
482.30 MXN
800.29 MXN
1,187 MXN
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
1,100 MXN
1,881 MXN
2,747 MXN
73
5Y P/E Exit
865.12 MXN
1,470 MXN
2,065 MXN
69
10Y Revenue Exit
464.59 MXN
747.79 MXN
1,088 MXN
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
867.16 MXN
1,472 MXN
2,209 MXN
66
10Y P/E Exit
721.46 MXN
1,197 MXN
1,719 MXN
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
756.82 MXN
1,598 MXN
2,024 MXN
63
PEG = 1.0
240.74 MXN
343.91 MXN
447.08 MXN
55
EPV
889.28 MXN
1,064 MXN
1,217 MXN
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
630.10 MXN
954.73 MXN
1,302 MXN
66
DDM Multi-Stage
630.10 MXN
901.39 MXN
1,211 MXN
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
1,419 MXN
1,892 MXN
2,365 MXN
61
P/S Multiple
724.14 MXN
965.52 MXN
1,207 MXN
56
P/B Multiple
1,419 MXN
1,892 MXN
2,365 MXN
53
EV/EBIT
1,652 MXN
2,256 MXN
2,859 MXN
64
EV/EBITDA
1,685 MXN
2,300 MXN
2,915 MXN
66
EV/Revenue
516.23 MXN
805.89 MXN
1,096 MXN
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
347.33 MXN
465.42 MXN
694.66 MXN
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
523.37 MXN
780.29 MXN
1,126 MXN
77
Rev-Margin DCF
482.30 MXN
808.83 MXN
1,151 MXN
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
727.00 MXN
893.01 MXN
1,233 MXN
75
ROIC Compounder
910.71 MXN
1,144 MXN
1,399 MXN
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
1,057 MXN
1,509 MXN
1,962 MXN
66
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 27%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.3% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.1%
RION screens overvalued: fair value 38% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rio Tinto Group (RION) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,047 MXN versus a price of 1,700 MXN, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RION?
Our model-based fair value for Rio Tinto Group is 1,047 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,700 MXN.
What is the quality score of RION?
Rio Tinto Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,047 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 677.02 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,501 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rio Tinto Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,047 MXN, about −38% upside versus a price of 1,700 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 677.02 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,501 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Rio Tinto Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $57.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Rio Tinto Group pay a dividend?
Rio Tinto Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rio Tinto Group would have to grow free cash flow by +23.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RION use?
Our models discount Rio Tinto Group at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rio Tinto Group that is +23.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rio Tinto Group (RION) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rio Tinto Group grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +23.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rio Tinto Group (RION) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rio Tinto Group (+23.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow Rio Tinto Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rio Tinto Group it is 1,047 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 1,700 MXN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rio Tinto Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, RION trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,700 MXN, fair value 1,047 MXN, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RION?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,700 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,047 MXN). For Rio Tinto Group the two are 652.68 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rio Tinto Group worth?
The market values Rio Tinto Group at about 2.8T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 1,700 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 1,047 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RION?
Our models span a range for Rio Tinto Group: cautious scenario 677.02 MXN, base 1,047 MXN, optimistic 1,501 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 1,700 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RION from its 52-week high?
Rio Tinto Group trades at 1,700 MXN, about 11% below its 52-week high of 1,921 MXN and 51% above the low of 1,123 MXN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,047 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rio Tinto Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rio Tinto Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 1,700 MXN, calculated fair value 1,047 MXN (−38%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RION calculated?
We run Rio Tinto Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,047 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rio Tinto Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 1,700 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 1,047 MXN, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rio Tinto Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,501 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (677.02 MXN to 1,501 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Rio Tinto Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The market capitalisation of Rio Tinto Group is 2.8T MXN (≈ $151B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Rio Tinto Group is 14.8 (as of Jul 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rio Tinto Group is 2.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Earnings per share at Rio Tinto Group are 106.56 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The dividend yield of Rio Tinto Group is 0.2% (payout 3.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The net margin of Rio Tinto Group is 17.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rio Tinto Group is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rio Tinto Group is 18.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
The operating margin of Rio Tinto Group is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Revenue at Rio Tinto Group is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rio Tinto Group (RION)?
Earnings per share at Rio Tinto Group are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rio Tinto Group (RION) carry?
The net debt of Rio Tinto Group is $15.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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