Sunrun Inc (RUN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.0B
Sunrun Inc
RUN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −15.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 167% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($20.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.67 – $58.66 · fair‑value band $20.44 – $34.07 · the $10.20 price screens below the $27.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Sunrun Inc (RUN) currently trades at $10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.26, implying the stock looks roughly 167.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sunrun Inc generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 43.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -22.7%. Net debt stands at $13.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.44 (bear case) to $34.07 (bull case); at $10.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at 167%, RUN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($106.65) versus Dividend Discount ($1.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers.
Full company description
Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. It offers battery storage along with solar energy systems; and sells services to commercial developers through multi-family and new homes. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. It also operates distributed electricity power plants. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sunrun Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $450M in FY2025.
Watch RUN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Should Sunrun’s Q2 Earnings Beat and Record Storage Attachments Reshape RUN’s Investment Narrative?
- Sunrun (RUN) Stock Fair Value Falls As Analysts Weigh Growth Projects And Cash Risks
- Sunrun (RUN) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Peer Group
Solar · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $221.03 | $284.45 | +29% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $111.50 | $69.61 | -38% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,923 | ₹3,613 | +24% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥13.08 | ¥12.13 | -7% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.39 | ¥4.75 | +8% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.64 | ¥22.76 | +5% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.11 | ¥7.01 | -31% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $44.83 | $22.20 | -50% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,086 | ₹912.32 | -16% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.98 | ¥7.97 | -39% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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