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Sunrun Inc (RUN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sunrun Inc $21.29, price $8.35, upside +155.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US86771W1053

SI Sunrun Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Sunrun Inc

RUN · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $21.29 · Strongly undervalued (+155%)
!Quality 33/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +26.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$58.66 $5.67 Fair Value $21.29 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.67 – $58.66 · fair‑value band $12.31 – $27.68 · the $8.35 price screens below the $21.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers.

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Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. It offers battery storage along with solar energy systems; and sells services to commercial developers through multi-family and new homes. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. It also operates distributed electricity power plants. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Sunrun Inc (RUN) currently trades at $8.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.29, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $82.32 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the $8.35 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.80, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $12.31 (bear) to $27.68 (bull), the price of $8.35 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Sunrun Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $450M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 3.9 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $2.13 · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity −22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.2% · Operating margin −6.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 155%, RUN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $12.31 Fair Value $21.29 Bull $27.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.56 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $90.50 $267.78 $626.27 68
Growth-Adj P/E $57.62 $82.32 $107.02 67
Graham-Dodd $12.83 $89.45 $125.53 63
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $90.50 $267.78 $626.27 68
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.83 $89.45 $125.53 63
Lynch FV $43.57 $62.24 $80.92 61
PEG = 1.0 $43.57 $62.24 $80.92 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $29.71 $39.61 $49.51 63
P/S Multiple $18.59 $24.79 $30.99 58
P/B Multiple $24.05 $32.07 $40.08 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.57 $8.80 $13.13 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.72 $16.20 $41.61 63
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $57.62 $82.32 $107.02 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 2
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+37.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.51% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−50% → −4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Sunrun Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 113 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Below median
Fair Value upside +155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.60× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.94× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 23.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.07× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $200.78 $392.12 +95%
Nextpower Inc NXT $82.52 $90.77 +10%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.58 ¥12.13 +5%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,512 ₹2,709 +8%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.85 ¥6.47 +68%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $34.42 $24.15 −30%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.53 ¥4.82 −43%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.33 ¥31.86 +57%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹915.00 ₹648.94 −29%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥11.20 ¥31.67 +183%

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Sunrun Inc · Fair Value
$21.29 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sunrun Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RUN

Frequently asked questions

Is Sunrun Inc (RUN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.29 versus a price of $8.35, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RUN?
Our model-based fair value for Sunrun Inc is $21.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.35.
What is the quality score of RUN?
Sunrun Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.31, optimistic scenario $27.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sunrun Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.29, about +155% upside versus a price of $8.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.31, optimistic scenario $27.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Sunrun Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sunrun Inc it is $21.29 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.35. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sunrun Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RUN trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.35, fair value $21.29, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RUN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.29). For Sunrun Inc the two are $12.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sunrun Inc worth?
The market values Sunrun Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.35; our models calculate a fair value of $21.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RUN?
Our models span a range for Sunrun Inc: cautious scenario $12.31, base $21.29, optimistic $27.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RUN?
Sunrun Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 23.4.
What is the PEG ratio of RUN?
The PEG ratio of Sunrun Inc is 3.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sunrun Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −22.7%, debt of 4.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RUN from its 52-week high?
Sunrun Inc trades at $8.35, about 61% below its 52-week high of $21.41 and 1% above the low of $8.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sunrun Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sunrun Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.35, calculated fair value $21.29 (+155%), Quality Score 33/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RUN calculated?
We run Sunrun Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sunrun Inc currently trades 155 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.35. Our model-based fair value is $21.29, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sunrun Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($12.31 to $27.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Sunrun Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The market capitalisation of Sunrun Inc is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sunrun Inc is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Earnings per share at Sunrun Inc are $2.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The net margin of Sunrun Inc is 15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sunrun Inc is −22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sunrun Inc is −7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
The operating margin of Sunrun Inc is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Revenue at Sunrun Inc is growing +43.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sunrun Inc (RUN)?
Earnings per share at Sunrun Inc are growing +214% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sunrun Inc (RUN) generate?
The free cash flow of Sunrun Inc is −$423M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Sunrun Inc (RUN) carry?
The net debt of Sunrun Inc is $13.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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