Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. BRL 106, price BRL 133, upside -20.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$24.41 – R$140.56 · fair‑value band R$79.41 – R$132.35 · the R$132.85 price screens above the R$105.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through four segments: Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit.
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through four segments: Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit. The Wholesale Business Unit segment offers bilateral loans, syndicated loans, commitment lines, structured finance, project finance, and nonrecourse loans; deposits and investment trusts; risk hedging services, including forward exchange contracts and derivatives; stand-by credit, and performance bond and credit guarantee services; remittance, cash management, trade finance, and supply chain finance services; merger and acquisition, and other advisory services; digital services; and equipment, operating and leveraged leasing services. The Retail Business Unit segment provides wealth management services, such as time deposits and foreign currency deposits, investment trusts, equities, bonds, insurance products, and trust services; credit card, installment, and transaction services; and consumer finance and housing loans. The Global Business Unit segment offers loans, deposits, clearing, trade finance, project finance, loan syndication, derivatives, and global cash management services; equity and fixed income sales and trading, and underwriting services; and construction machinery, transportation equipment, industrial machinery, medical equipment, and other leasing services. The Global Markets Business Unit segment provides asset liability management and portfolio management, foreign currency funding, and sales and trading services. The company offers system development, data processing, management consulting, economic research, and asset management services. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34) currently trades at R$132.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$105.88, 20.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$107.15 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the R$132.85 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$55.07, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$79.41 (bear) to R$132.35 (bull), the price of R$132.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. reported revenue of ¥5.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.4T in FY2022, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.6T in FY2026, compounding +22.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$825B (≈ $158B) · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 4.58 · EPS (TTM) R$7.92 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −20%, S1MF34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$79.41Fair Value R$105.88Bull R$132.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
2026 sits 70% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.0%/yr over ~5Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)27.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.62× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)5.70× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.16× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 56
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)19· sector 41
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/S1MF34
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$105.88 versus a price of R$132.85, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of S1MF34?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is R$105.88 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$132.85.
What is the quality score of S1MF34?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$105.88 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$79.41, optimistic scenario R$132.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$105.88, about −20% upside versus a price of R$132.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$79.41, optimistic scenario R$132.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. it is R$105.88 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$132.85. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, S1MF34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$132.85, fair value R$105.88, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of S1MF34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$132.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$105.88). For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. the two are R$26.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. worth?
The market values Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. at about R$825B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$132.85; our models calculate a fair value of R$105.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about S1MF34?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.: cautious scenario R$79.41, base R$105.88, optimistic R$132.35 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$132.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of S1MF34?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$105.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of S1MF34?
The PEG ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 2.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 1.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is S1MF34 from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. trades at R$132.85, about 5% below its 52-week high of R$140.56 and 61% above the low of R$82.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$105.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$132.85, calculated fair value R$105.88 (−20%), Quality Score 47/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of S1MF34 calculated?
We run Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$105.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$132.85. Our model-based fair value is R$105.88, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is R$825B (≈ $158B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 4.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. are R$7.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 2.1% (payout 34.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 27.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is 271% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is growing +36.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. are growing +355% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (S1MF34) generate?
The free cash flow of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. is −¥10.8T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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