Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹1.2B
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 26, 2026, revised from ₹143.01 to ₹138.15 (−3.4%) since Aug 22, 2026. Share price +14.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 79% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹206.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (₹51.98 to ₹206.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹43.60 – ₹550.00 · fair‑value band ₹51.98 – ₹206.72 · the ₹247.00 price screens above the ₹138.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Analysis
Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG) currently trades at ₹247.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹138.15, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Samrat Forgings Ltd generated revenue of ₹2.0B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at ₹955M. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹51.98 (bear case) to ₹206.72 (bull case); at ₹247.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -44%, SAMRATFORG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (₹184.33) versus Asset-Based (₹55.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Samrat Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹2.0B in FY2026 versus ₹1.4B in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹43.9M in FY2026, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2022.
SAMRATFORG screens 44% overvalued. Compare with SAPL →
Peer Group
Industrials · 5535 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Auto Components” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Components stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAPL SAPL | ₹3,998 | ₹2,275 | -43% |
| SALAUTO SALAUTO | ₹201.40 | ₹177.67 | -12% |
| Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 3750 | HK$652.50 | HK$394.19 | -40% |
| Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA | 269.00 THB | 40.28 THB | -85% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 202.30 | kr 112.59 | -44% |
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 342.80 | kr 288.08 | -16% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | -46% |
| LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 | 365,500 KRW | 201,455 KRW | -45% |
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,658 | ₹1,041 | -37% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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