Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Standard Bank Group Ltd ZAR 254, price ZAR 306, upside -17.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R84.53 – R336.52 · fair‑value band R173.44 – R396.64 · the R306.46 price screens above the R253.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Standard Bank Group Limited provides financial products and services in South Africa and internationally.
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Standard Bank Group Limited provides financial products and services in South Africa and internationally. It offers a range of onshore and offshore savings and investment; home and personal loans; forex solutions; transactional banking, including digital wallets, cards, payment and transfer platforms; private and digital banking; forex solutions; vehicle and asset finance; credit cards; and insurance solutions. The company also provides transactional banking; business lending; commercial asset finance; merchant, trade, fleet, and business solar solutions; specific solutions for clients in various sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, and tourism; app and internet banking; international payments and forex; alternative funding options; and business resources and insurance. In addition, it offers advisory, transactional, trading, risk management, and funding solutions; and long and short-term insurance, health insurance, and asset management. Further, the company engages in trust or other fiduciary activities. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) currently trades at R306.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R253.84, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R307.45 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the R306.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R111.33, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R173.44 (bear) to R396.64 (bull), the price of R306.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Standard Bank Group Ltd reported revenue of 373B ZAR in FY2025 versus 133B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +29.5%/yr. Reported net income was 51.2B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 504B ZAC · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) R29.88 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −17%, SBK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R173.44Fair Value R253.84Bull R396.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (8.87 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.96% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Standard Bank Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Standard Bank Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SBK
Frequently asked questions
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R253.84 versus a price of R306.46, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SBK?
Our model-based fair value for Standard Bank Group Ltd is R253.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R306.46.
What is the quality score of SBK?
Standard Bank Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R253.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R173.44, optimistic scenario R396.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Standard Bank Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R253.84, about −17% upside versus a price of R306.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R173.44, optimistic scenario R396.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Standard Bank Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 180B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Standard Bank Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Standard Bank Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Standard Bank Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBK use?
Our models discount Standard Bank Group Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Standard Bank Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Standard Bank Group Ltd grew +27.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Standard Bank Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.56 %: that much free cash flow Standard Bank Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Standard Bank Group Ltd it is R253.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R306.46. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SBK trades above its calculated fair value: price R306.46, fair value R253.84, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R306.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R253.84). For Standard Bank Group Ltd the two are R52.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Standard Bank Group Ltd worth?
The market values Standard Bank Group Ltd at about 504B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R306.46; our models calculate a fair value of R253.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBK?
Our models span a range for Standard Bank Group Ltd: cautious scenario R173.44, base R253.84, optimistic R396.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R306.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBK?
Standard Bank Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R253.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 65.4, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SBK?
The PEG ratio of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 65.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Standard Bank Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBK from its 52-week high?
Standard Bank Group Ltd trades at R306.46, about 9% below its 52-week high of R336.52 and 34% above the low of R228.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R253.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Standard Bank Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R306.46, calculated fair value R253.84 (−17%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBK calculated?
We run Standard Bank Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R253.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Standard Bank Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R306.46. Our model-based fair value is R253.84, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Standard Bank Group Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R173.44 to R396.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) come from?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Standard Bank Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The market capitalisation of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 504B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd are R29.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The dividend yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 5.8% (payout 59.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The net margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
The operating margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 43.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Revenue at Standard Bank Group Ltd is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK)?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd are growing +15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Standard Bank Group Ltd (SBK) carry?
The net debt of Standard Bank Group Ltd is 148B ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026