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Sugi Holdings (SGIPF) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.9B

SH Sugi Holdings logo Sugi Holdings SGIPF · US
Price$18.99
Fair Value$29.41
Upside+54.9%
Quality60/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 4.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.42% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range $22.43 – $59.45 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $29.89 to $29.41 (−1.6%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +16.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 55% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.43). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($22.43 to $59.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$24.81 $13.77 Fair Value $29.41 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.77 – $24.81 · fair‑value band $22.43 – $59.45 · the $18.99 price screens below the $29.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Sugi Holdings (SGIPF) currently trades at $18.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.41, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sugi Holdings generated revenue of $1.0T at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $17.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $22.43 (bear case) to $59.45 (bull case); at $18.99, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 55%, SGIPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $33.66 $62.72 $109.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF $25.24 $42.05 $77.37 74
ROIC Compounder $19.45 $28.29 $34.29 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $35.74 $54.23 $111.85 38
Owner Earnings $22.58 $48.23 $100.08 31
5Y Revenue Exit $23.11 $36.92 $65.66 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $28.00 $46.81 $83.64 41
5Y P/E Exit $28.97 $60.30 $102.55 38
10Y Revenue Exit $26.59 $51.89 $66.53 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $30.73 $62.19 $115.63 37
10Y P/E Exit $31.43 $64.23 $117.11 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $10.34 $72.12 $101.21 54
Lynch FV $37.26 $53.23 $69.19 50
PEG = 1.0 $37.26 $53.23 $69.19 46
EPV $14.93 $17.05 $18.88 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.95 $31.94 $39.92 63
P/S Multiple $19.39 $25.85 $32.32 58
P/B Multiple $19.39 $25.85 $32.32 55
EV/EBIT $22.43 $29.41 $36.39 53
EV/EBITDA $24.13 $31.68 $39.23 54
EV/Revenue $16.44 $22.84 $29.25 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.91 $6.58 $9.82 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $33.66 $62.72 $109.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF $25.24 $42.05 $77.37 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.79 $12.95 $36.90 61
ROIC Compounder $19.45 $28.29 $34.29 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $48.73 $69.62 $90.51 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($69.62) versus Asset-Based ($6.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.0T
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.9%
Net margin 4.5%
Return on equity 16.6%
Free cash flow $63.9B FY2026
P/E ratio 20.1
More key figures
Operating margin 5.6%
EPS (TTM) $0.8100
Dividend yield 1.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +40.6%
Net cash $17.2B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Sugi Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates drugstores in Japan. The company also provides self-care support services, including meal delivery, cancer and other health checkups, specific health guidance, health information, and community comprehensive agreements; health care support, such as medicine support, home-visit dispensing and nursing, prevention programs, …

Full company description

Sugi Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates drugstores in Japan. The company also provides self-care support services, including meal delivery, cancer and other health checkups, specific health guidance, health information, and community comprehensive agreements; health care support, such as medicine support, home-visit dispensing and nursing, prevention programs, shopping assistance, and mobility support services. In addition, it engages in drugstore operation, dispensing pharmacy operation, medical consultation, business in foreign countries, Chinese medicine pharmacy operations, disease prevention and health support, promotion of disabled employment, home visit nursing and elderly home-care support, support for commencement of medical practice, comprehensive staff agency service, and support business for pharmacy operations. Sugi Holdings Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Obu, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Sugi Holdings reported revenue of ¥1.0T in FY2026 versus ¥5.4B in FY2022, a compound +269.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥45.1B in FY2026, compounding +304.4%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$1.0T
Latest YoY
+15.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+491.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+182.2%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y)
+10.5%
Revenue +269.4%/yr
FY22 ¥5.4B
FY23 ¥4.9B
FY24 ¥744B
FY25 ¥878B
FY26 ¥1.0T
Net income +304.4%/yr
FY22 ¥169M
FY23 ¥139M
FY24 ¥22.0B
FY25 ¥25.7B
FY26 ¥45.1B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sugi Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGIPF

Peer Group

Pharmaceutical Retailers · 61 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +55% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.23× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Pharmaceutical Retailers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.46× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 35 · sector 19
PAST 66 · sector 19
HEALTH 88 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 28 · sector 66

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Pharmaceutical Retailers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JD Health International Inc 6618 HK$39.20 HK$33.28 -15%
Raia Drogasil S.A RADL3 R$18.20 R$15.58 -14%
Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co 603939 ¥20.24 ¥29.07 +44%
DaShenLin Pharmaceutical Group 603233 ¥17.81 ¥23.86 +34%
Corporativo Fragua, S.A. FRAGUAB 463.00 MXN 821.18 MXN +77%
LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company 603883 ¥11.51 ¥10.57 -8%
MedPlus Health Services Limited MEDPLUS ₹690.20 ₹379.25 -45%
Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group 002727 ¥11.46 ¥9.45 -18%
Anhui Huaren Health Pharmaceutical Co 301408 ¥14.40 ¥10.05 -30%
Apotea AB APOTEA kr 74.75 kr 43.95 -41%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sugi Holdings (SGIPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.41 versus a price of $18.99, about +55% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGIPF?
Our model-based fair value for Sugi Holdings is $29.41 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $18.99.
What is the quality score of SGIPF?
Sugi Holdings has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sugi Holdings (SGIPF)?
Sugi Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0T (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SGIPF?
The net profit margin of Sugi Holdings is about 4.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sugi Holdings pay a dividend?
Sugi Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.42% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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