Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Synlait Milk Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Below-average quality, and trading another 41% above our fair value of A$0.2380.
As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Synlait Milk Ltd is A$0.2380 per share against a price of A$0.3350, so the fair value sits 29% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +13.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0765 to A$0.4080). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2050 – A$3.73 · fair‑value band A$0.0765 – A$0.4080 · the A$0.3350 price screens above the A$0.2380 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) currently trades at A$0.3350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2380, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$0.8800 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$0.3350 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.6000, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Synlait Milk Ltd generated revenue of A$1.8B at a net margin of −6.9%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −17.4%. Net debt stands at A$306M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Scenario range: A$0.0765 (bear) to A$0.4080 (bull), the price of A$0.3350 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −29%, SM1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$3.14) versus Multiples (A$0.6000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells dairy and non-dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Synlait and Dairyworks segments.
Full company description
Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells dairy and non-dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Synlait and Dairyworks segments. The company offers milk powder, milk powder-related products, fresh milk, ultra heat treatment milk and cream, cheese, and butter; skim milk powders; nutritional products for early life and adults comprising consumer-ready powders, base powders, ready-to-drink milk beverages, ingredients, and finished consumer-ready products; drinking yoghurts; specialized ingredients, such as lactoferrin; and anhydrous milk fat for foodservice applications. It sells its products under the Dairyworks, Rolling Meadow, Alpine, Pams, and Value brands. The company serves bakeries, cafés, and beverage chains; and manufacturers. It exports its products. Synlait Milk Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Rakaia, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Synlait Milk Ltd reported revenue of A$1.8B in FY2025 versus A$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$39.8M in FY2025.
SM1 screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 647 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.76 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $24.85 | $24.59 | −1% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $38.29 | $28.32 | −26% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| McCormick & Company MKCV | $55.65 | $43.29 | −22% |
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