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Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Synlait Milk Ltd stock A$0.56, price A$0.39, upside +43.8%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · AU · Home New Zealand · ISIN NZSMLE0001S9

SM Synlait Milk Ltd logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Synlait Milk Ltd

SM1 · AU

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

The stock costs 30% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value A$0.5610 · Undervalued (+43.8%)
Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +3.5 %/yr in AUD)
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -5.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 17/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$3.70 A$0.2050 Fair Value A$0.5610 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2050 – A$3.70 · fair‑value band A$0.4165 – A$0.8330 · the A$0.3900 price screens below the A$0.5610 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells dairy and non-dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Synlait and Dairyworks segments.

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The company offers milk powder, milk powder-related products, fresh milk, ultra heat treatment milk and cream, cheese, and butter; skim milk powders; nutritional products for early life and adults comprising consumer-ready powders, base powders, ready-to-drink milk beverages, ingredients, and finished consumer-ready products; drinking yoghurts; specialized ingredients, such as lactoferrin; and anhydrous milk fat for foodservice applications.

It sells its products under the Dairyworks, Rolling Meadow, Alpine, Pams, and Value brands. The company serves bakeries, cafés, and beverage chains; and manufacturers. It exports its products. Synlait Milk Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Rakaia, New Zealand.

Stock analysis

Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) currently trades at A$0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5610, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.4165 (bear) to A$0.8330 (bull), the price of A$0.3900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Synlait Milk Ltd reported revenue of A$1.6B in FY2026 versus A$1.4B in FY2022, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$72.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$235M (≈ $166M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1200 · Net margin −5.4% · Return on equity −12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin −2.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$1.7B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 44%, SM1 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.4165 Fair Value A$0.5610 Bull A$0.8330
Price A$0.3900 · Upside +43.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.4800 A$0.6500 A$0.9700 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.4800 A$0.6500 A$0.9700 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 37
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 43
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 13
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 13/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.6% (2021) → −4.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Synlait Milk Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 614 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +43.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −5.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −5.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.33× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)92 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.31 SGD 5.87 SGD +77% vs SM1
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥27.60 ¥41.84 +52% vs SM1
General Mills, Inc GIS $32.57 $45.47 +40% vs SM1
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $23.50 $29.20 +24% vs SM1
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥33.46 ¥36.81 +10% vs SM1
Danone S.A BN €60.82 €50.65 −17% vs SM1
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 84.37 CHF 59.51 −29% vs SM1
Kerry Group KRZ €99.60 €60.33 −39% vs SM1
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,224 ₹724.74 −41% vs SM1
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.61 ¥12.21 −52% vs SM1

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Synlait Milk Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.5610 +30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Synlait Milk Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SM1

Frequently asked questions

Is Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5610 versus a price of A$0.3900, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SM1?
Our model-based fair value for Synlait Milk Ltd is A$0.5610 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3900.
What is the quality score of SM1?
Synlait Milk Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5610 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4165, optimistic scenario A$0.8330. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Synlait Milk Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5610, about +44% upside versus a price of A$0.3900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4165, optimistic scenario A$0.8330. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Synlait Milk Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Synlait Milk Ltd it is A$0.5610 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.3900. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Synlait Milk Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, SM1 trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.3900, fair value A$0.5610, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SM1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5610). For Synlait Milk Ltd the two are A$0.1710 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Synlait Milk Ltd worth?
The market values Synlait Milk Ltd at about A$235M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5610 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SM1?
Our models span a range for Synlait Milk Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4165, base A$0.5610, optimistic A$0.8330 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Synlait Milk Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −12.2%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SM1 from its 52-week high?
Synlait Milk Ltd trades at A$0.3900, about 42% below its 52-week high of A$0.6700 and 37% above the low of A$0.2850 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5610 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Synlait Milk Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Synlait Milk Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.3900, calculated fair value A$0.5610 (+44%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SM1 calculated?
We run Synlait Milk Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5610, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Synlait Milk Ltd currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$0.3900. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5610, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Synlait Milk Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.4165). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.4165 to A$0.8330) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Synlait Milk Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The market capitalisation of Synlait Milk Ltd is A$235M (≈ $166M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Synlait Milk Ltd is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Earnings per share at Synlait Milk Ltd are A$−0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The net margin of Synlait Milk Ltd is −5.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Synlait Milk Ltd is −12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Synlait Milk Ltd is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
The operating margin of Synlait Milk Ltd is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Revenue at Synlait Milk Ltd is growing −0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1)?
Earnings per share at Synlait Milk Ltd are growing −82.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) generate?
The free cash flow of Synlait Milk Ltd is −A$237M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) carry?
The net debt of Synlait Milk Ltd is A$259M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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