Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd stock $14.65, price $12.08, upside +21.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range $1.99 – $24.40 · fair‑value band $9.67 – $20.93 · the $12.08 price screens below the $14.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd. Manufactures, purchases, and sells pharmaceutical products for medical treatment in Japan, North America, and Asia.
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It offers therapeutic agents for parkinson's disease, type 2 diabetes, advanced prostate cancer, uterine fibroids and endometriosis, overactive bladder, and pediatric congenital athymia.
The company also provides atypical antipsychotic, generic products, antiepileptic, atypical antipsychotic, and carbapenem antibiotic. In addition, it offers veterinary medicines, medical devices, etc.
The company has collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company was formerly known as Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd. in April 2022. The company was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Sumitomo Chemical Company, Limited.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) currently trades at $12.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.65, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $29.04 per share, and 12 of the 21 models we run sit above the $12.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.38, and 9 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.67 (bear) to $20.93 (bull), the price of $12.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥481B in FY2026 versus ¥560B in FY2022, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥113B in FY2026, compounding +19.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B Mid · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $1.58 · Net margin 23.6% · Return on equity 38.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 21%, SMDPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.67Fair Value $14.65Bull$20.93
Price $12.08 · Upside +21.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9653 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.9% vs 15.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (56 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Solid profitability from North American sales of key products stands against limited durable moat signals and elevated leverage in specialty generics.
Main risk: Generic competition could erode margins and revenue base in the specialty drug portfolio.
Sumitomo Pharma just reported generally favorable safety and tolerability from the final analysis of a European Phase I trial for its universal influenza vaccine candidate fH1/DSP-0546LP. This sits alongside record earnings driven by North American sales of key products and ongoing work on iPS cell therapies. Will the vaccine effort meaningfully widen the revenue base, or will outcomes still depend primarily on the specialty drug portfolio?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 549 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+21.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.83× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.65 versus a price of $12.08, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMDPY?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is $14.65 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.08.
What is the quality score of SMDPY?
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.65 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.67, optimistic scenario $20.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.65, about +21% upside versus a price of $12.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.67, optimistic scenario $20.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥475B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMDPY use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd that is +0.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd grew -1.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (+0.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.56 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd it is $14.65 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $12.08. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, SMDPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.08, fair value $14.65, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMDPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.65). For Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd the two are $2.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $12.08; our models calculate a fair value of $14.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMDPY?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $9.67, base $14.65, optimistic $20.93 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $12.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMDPY?
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 38.5%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMDPY from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd trades at $12.08, about 50% below its 52-week high of $24.40 and 54% above the low of $7.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $12.08, calculated fair value $14.65 (+21%), Quality Score 63/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMDPY calculated?
We run Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.08. Our model-based fair value is $14.65, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($9.67 to $20.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is 1.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd are $1.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is 23.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is 38.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is −6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd are growing +38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd (SMDPY) carry?
The net debt of Sumitomo Pharma Co. Ltd is ¥174B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026