Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial $13.53, price $22.06, upside -38.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.25 – $22.76 · fair‑value band $11.92 – $18.48 · the $22.06 price screens above the $13.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit segments.
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit segments. The Wholesale Business Unit segment offers bilateral loans, syndicated loans, commitment lines, structured finance, project finance, and nonrecourse loans; deposits and investment trusts; risk hedging services, including forward exchange contracts and derivatives; stand-by credit, and performance bond and credit guarantee services; remittance, cash management, trade finance, and supply chain finance services; merger and acquisition, and other advisory services; digital services; and equipment, operating and leveraged leasing services. The Retail Business Unit segment provides wealth management services, such as time deposits and foreign currency deposits, investment trusts, equities, bonds, insurance products, and trust services; credit card, installment, and transaction services; and consumer finance and housing loans. The Global Business Unit segment offers loans, deposits, clearing, trade finance, project finance, loan syndication, derivatives, and global cash management services; equity and fixed income sales and trading, and underwriting services; and construction machinery, transportation equipment, industrial machinery, medical equipment, and other leasing services. The Global Markets Business Unit segment provides asset liability management and portfolio management, foreign currency funding, and sales and trading services. The company offers system development, data processing, management consulting, economic research, and asset management services. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) currently trades at $22.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.53, 38.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.20 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $22.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $14.45, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.92 (bear) to $18.48 (bull), the price of $22.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial reported revenue of ¥10.2T in FY2026 versus ¥3.8T in FY2022, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.6T in FY2026, compounding +22.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $162B · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) $2.56 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 15.5% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −39%, SMFNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.92Fair Value $13.53Bull $18.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.3% vs 10.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%
Compare Sumitomo Mitsui Financial with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−35.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)26.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.62× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.62× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)4.22× · Pricier than median
P/FCF3.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.10× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 56
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)19· sector 41
DIVIDEND (yield)28· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.53 versus a price of $22.06, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMFNF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is $13.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.06.
What is the quality score of SMFNF?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.92, optimistic scenario $18.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.53, about −39% upside versus a price of $22.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.92, optimistic scenario $18.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥6.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial it is $13.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $22.06. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SMFNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.06, fair value $13.53, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.53). For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial the two are $8.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial worth?
The market values Sumitomo Mitsui Financial at about $162B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $22.06; our models calculate a fair value of $13.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFNF?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial: cautious scenario $11.92, base $13.53, optimistic $18.48 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $22.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMFNF?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of SMFNF?
The PEG ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 2.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 1.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMFNF from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial trades at $22.06, about 3% below its 52-week high of $22.76 and 87% above the low of $11.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $22.06, calculated fair value $13.53 (−39%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFNF calculated?
We run Sumitomo Mitsui Financial through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.06. Our model-based fair value is $13.53, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) come from?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial grew +7.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin −3.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is $162B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial are $2.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 1.4% (payout 12.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 15.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) generate?
The free cash flow of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is ¥6.9T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFNF) hold?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial holds more cash than debt, ¥15.3T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 28, 2026