Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk stock IDR 2,460, price IDR 820, upside +200.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 616.54 IDR – 2,029 IDR · fair‑value band 981.17 IDR – 3,683 IDR · the 820.00 IDR price screens below the 2,460 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells crude palm oil, its derivatives, fresh fruit bunches, palm kernel oil, and palm kernel in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates palm oil estates, palm oil plantations, palm oil mills, and a biogas plant.
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It also provides consulting, trading, industrial estate, and other business support services. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pangkalan Bun, Indonesia. PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. is a subsidiary of PT Citra Borneo Indah.
Stock analysis
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) currently trades at 820.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,460 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 3,866 IDR per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the 820.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 480.99 IDR, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 981.17 IDR (bear) to 3,683 IDR (bull), the price of 820.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk reported revenue of 14.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 5.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +29.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4T IDR in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.6T IDR (≈ $423M) Small · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) 162.60 IDR · Dividend yield 10.2% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 49.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 200%, SSMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear981.17 IDRFair Value 2,460 IDRBull3,683 IDR
Price 820.00 IDR · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (62.89 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.6% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 18%
2025 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.2% a year for the price.
Compare Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 617 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+182.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)49.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)76.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,460 IDR versus a price of 820.00 IDR, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSMS?
Our model-based fair value for Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 2,460 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 820.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of SSMS?
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,460 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 981.17 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,683 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,460 IDR, about +200% upside versus a price of 820.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 981.17 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,683 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk pay a dividend?
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 10.24% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +22.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSMS use?
Our models discount Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk that is +22.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk grew +29.9 % a year. The price currently implies +22.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (+22.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.87 %: that much free cash flow Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk it is 2,460 IDR per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 820.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, SSMS trades below its calculated fair value: price 820.00 IDR, fair value 2,460 IDR, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (820.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,460 IDR). For Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk the two are 1,640 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk worth?
The market values Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk at about 7.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 820.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,460 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSMS?
Our models span a range for Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk: cautious scenario 981.17 IDR, base 2,460 IDR, optimistic 3,683 IDR per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 820.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SSMS?
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,460 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 49.6%, debt of 2.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSMS from its 52-week high?
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk trades at 820.00 IDR, about 52% below its 52-week high of 1,713 IDR and 22% above the low of 670.00 IDR (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,460 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 820.00 IDR, calculated fair value 2,460 IDR (+200%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSMS calculated?
We run Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,460 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was 820.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,460 IDR, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (981.17 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (981.17 IDR to 3,683 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) come from?
Earnings per share at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.5 %, EBIT margin −9.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The market capitalisation of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 7.6T IDR (≈ $423M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Earnings per share at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk are 162.60 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The dividend yield of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 10.2% (payout 51.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The net margin of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 49.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
The operating margin of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Revenue at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is growing +76.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)?
Earnings per share at Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk are growing +67.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS) carry?
The net debt of Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk is 7.5T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026