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System1, Inc (SST) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $27.7M

SI System1, Inc logo System1, Inc SST · US
Price$1.67
Fair Value$2.70
Upside+61.7%
Quality39/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -42.2% net margin
High debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 6/100
Evidence: Low Range $1.87 – $10.37 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 5 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price −34.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 62% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($1.87 to $10.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$268.10 $1.37 Fair Value $2.70 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.37 – $268.10 · fair‑value band $1.87 – $10.37 · the $1.67 price screens below the $2.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

System1, Inc (SST) currently trades at $1.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.70, implying the stock looks roughly 61.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, System1, Inc generated revenue of $229M at a net margin of -42.2%. Revenue declined 50.0% year over year. Net debt stands at $228M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.87 (bear case) to $10.37 (bull case); at $1.67, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 62%, SST screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0300 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0400 61
EV/EBITDA $5.63 $13.29 $20.96 54
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $2.14 $8.61 31
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0300 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0400 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $5.63 $13.29 $20.96 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.87 $2.50 $3.74 50

Widest divergence: Multiples ($13.29) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $229M
Revenue growth (YoY) -50.0%
Net margin -42.2%
Return on equity -831%
Free cash flow −$4.2M FY2025
Operating margin -32.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-12.00
EPS growth (YoY) -95.0%
Net debt $228M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

System1, Inc. provides omnichannel customer acquisition platform services through its proprietary responsive acquisition marketing platform in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Owned and Operated Advertising, and Partner Network.

Full company description

System1, Inc. provides omnichannel customer acquisition platform services through its proprietary responsive acquisition marketing platform in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Owned and Operated Advertising, and Partner Network. The company engages in the provision of acquiring traffic to its owned and operated websites, as well as revenue-sharing arrangements and related services. It also operates MapQuest, a web-based navigation service that delivers turn-by-turn direction services to users; Info.com, a metasearch engine that consumers can use to search for relevant information; HowStuffWorks, a commercial website focused on helping people solve problems in their daily lives by using various types of digital media to easily breakdown and explain complex concepts, topics, terminology, and mechanisms; Startpage, a private search engine that allows users to browse and search the Internet in complete privacy; and CouponFollow, a coupon destinations for online shoppers, as well as ActiveBeat and Infospace. In addition, the company offers antivirus software solutions, which provide customers a single packaged solution that offers protection and reporting to the end users. The company is based in Los Angeles, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

System1, Inc reported revenue of $266M in FY2025 versus $688M in FY2021, a compound −21.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$65.3M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$266M
Latest YoY
−22.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−26.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.0%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.0%
Revenue −21.1%/yr
FY21 $688M
FY22 $665M
FY23 $402M
FY24 $344M
FY25 $266M
Net income
FY21 $33.0M
FY22 −$367M
FY23 −$227M
FY24 −$74.7M
FY25 −$65.3M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "System1, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SST

Peer Group

Specialty Business Services · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +62% · Top 25%
Return on assets -10% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -42% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -32% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -50% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 7.50× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.12× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 31.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 24
FUTURE 0 · sector 27
PAST 0 · sector 33
HEALTH 0 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 54

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS $206.25 $95.30 -54%
RELX PLC RELX $33.70 $32.49 -4%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI C$133.87 C$70.40 -47%
Copart, Inc CPRT $27.61 $28.59 +4%
Global Payments Inc GPN $80.49 $69.67 -13%
RB Global, Inc RBA C$156.43 C$49.14 -69%
Brambles Limited BXB A$18.79 A$12.28 -35%
UL Solutions Inc ULS $87.76 $33.62 -62%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL €62.56 €103.99 +66%
Aramark ARMK $56.74 $13.73 -76%

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Frequently asked questions

Is System1, Inc (SST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.70 versus a price of $1.67, about +62% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SST?
Our model-based fair value for System1, Inc is $2.70 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $1.67.
What is the quality score of SST?
System1, Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of System1, Inc (SST)?
System1, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $229M (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SST?
The net profit margin of System1, Inc is about -42.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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