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System1 Inc (SST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of System1 Inc $2.70, price $3.14, upside -14.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US87200P1093

SI System1 Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

System1 Inc

SST · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.70 · Overvalued (−14%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -42.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $2.70 to $10.37
!Weak on valuation: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$268.10 $1.37 Fair Value $2.70 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.37 – $268.10 · fair‑value band $2.70 – $10.37 · the $3.14 price screens above the $2.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

System1, Inc. provides omnichannel customer acquisition platform services through its proprietary responsive acquisition marketing platform in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Owned and Operated Advertising, and Partner Network.

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System1, Inc. provides omnichannel customer acquisition platform services through its proprietary responsive acquisition marketing platform in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Owned and Operated Advertising, and Partner Network. The company engages in the provision of acquiring traffic to its owned and operated websites, as well as revenue-sharing arrangements and related services. It also operates MapQuest, a web-based navigation service that delivers turn-by-turn direction services to users; Info.com, a metasearch engine that consumers can use to search for relevant information; HowStuffWorks, a commercial website focused on helping people solve problems in their daily lives by using various types of digital media to easily breakdown and explain complex concepts, topics, terminology, and mechanisms; Startpage, a private search engine that allows users to browse and search the Internet in complete privacy; and CouponFollow, a coupon destinations for online shoppers, as well as ActiveBeat and Infospace. In addition, the company offers antivirus software solutions, which provide customers a single packaged solution that offers protection and reporting to the end users. The company is based in Los Angeles, California.

Stock analysis

System1 Inc (SST) currently trades at $3.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.70, implying the stock looks roughly 16.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.45 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the $3.14 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.50, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.70 (bear) to $10.37 (bull), the price of $3.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

System1 Inc reported revenue of $266M in FY2025 versus $688M in FY2021, a compound −21.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$65.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $27.7M · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $−12.00 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −24.6% · Return on equity −831% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.3% · Operating margin −32.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −14%, SST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.70 Fair Value $2.70 Bull $10.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $17.42 $26.45 $40.98 76
Gordon GGM $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0300 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0400 67
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $17.42 $26.45 $40.98 76
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0300 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0400 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $5.63 $13.29 $20.96 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.87 $2.50 $3.74 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.0% (2020) → −23.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SST screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 249 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −10% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −42% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −32% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −50% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 7.50× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.91× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 31.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)2 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS $191.97 $181.30 −6%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI $98.45 $70.26 −29%
Copart, Inc CPRT $28.87 $32.23 +12%
Global Payments Inc GPN $84.00 $85.85 +2%
RB Global, Inc RBA C$117.34 C$129.07 +10%
UL Solutions Inc ULS $66.65 $33.62 −50%
Brambles Limited BXB A$18.73 A$18.66 +0%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL €68.82 €97.78 +42%
Aramark ARMK $56.59 $23.15 −59%
Rentokil Initial plc RTO $21.37 $19.63 −8%

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System1 Inc · Fair Value
$2.70 −16%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "System1 Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SST

Frequently asked questions

Is System1 Inc (SST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.70 versus a price of $3.14, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SST?
Our model-based fair value for System1 Inc is $2.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.14.
What is the quality score of SST?
System1 Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for System1 Inc (SST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.70, optimistic scenario $10.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the System1 Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.70, about −14% upside versus a price of $3.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.70, optimistic scenario $10.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of System1 Inc (SST)?
System1 Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $229M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does System1 Inc pay a dividend?
System1 Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of System1 Inc (SST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For System1 Inc it is $2.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.14. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is System1 Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SST trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.14, fair value $2.70, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.70). For System1 Inc the two are $0.4400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is System1 Inc worth?
The market values System1 Inc at about $27.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.14; our models calculate a fair value of $2.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SST?
Our models span a range for System1 Inc: cautious scenario $2.70, base $2.70, optimistic $10.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of System1 Inc (SST)?
Balance-sheet figures for System1 Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): debt of 7.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SST from its 52-week high?
System1 Inc trades at $3.14, about 61% below its 52-week high of $8.02 and 129% above the low of $1.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to System1 Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is System1 Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.14, calculated fair value $2.70 (−14%), Quality Score 39/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SST calculated?
We run System1 Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. System1 Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of System1 Inc (SST)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.14. Our model-based fair value is $2.70, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with System1 Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.70 to $10.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of System1 Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of System1 Inc (SST)?
The market capitalisation of System1 Inc is $27.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of System1 Inc (SST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of System1 Inc is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of System1 Inc (SST)?
Earnings per share at System1 Inc are $−12.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of System1 Inc (SST)?
The dividend yield of System1 Inc is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of System1 Inc (SST)?
The net margin of System1 Inc is −24.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of System1 Inc (SST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of System1 Inc is −831% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of System1 Inc (SST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of System1 Inc is −14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of System1 Inc (SST)?
The operating margin of System1 Inc is −32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at System1 Inc (SST)?
Revenue at System1 Inc is growing −50.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at System1 Inc (SST)?
Earnings per share at System1 Inc are growing −95.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does System1 Inc (SST) generate?
The free cash flow of System1 Inc is −$4.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does System1 Inc (SST) carry?
The net debt of System1 Inc is $228M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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