Stoke Therapeutics, Inc (STOK) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.0B
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc
STOK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $25.47 to $10.24 (−59.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.37 – $41.09 · fair‑value band $7.57 – $12.90 · the $32.71 price screens above the $10.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc (STOK) currently trades at $32.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.24, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $32.1M. It earns a return on equity of -45.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $84.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.57 (bear case) to $12.90 (bull case); at $32.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -69%, STOK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($16.22) versus Asset-Based ($3.79). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the development of treatments for severe genetic diseases by upregulating protein expression. The company utilizes its proprietary Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output (TANGO) approach in developing antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) to selectively restore protein levels.
Full company description
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the development of treatments for severe genetic diseases by upregulating protein expression. The company utilizes its proprietary Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output (TANGO) approach in developing antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) to selectively restore protein levels. Its lead product candidates include STK-002, which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of autosomal dominant optic atrophy; and Zorevunersen (STK-001), an investigational new medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome is being evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials. The company also develops programs focused on various targets, including haploinsufficiency diseases of the central nervous system and eye. It has a license and collaboration with Biogen Inc. for the development and commercialization of zorevunersen medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome; and Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. for the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel RNA-based medicines for the treatment of genetic neurodevelopmental diseases. The company was formerly known as ASOthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2016. Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $184M in FY2025 versus $3.0M in FY2021, a compound +180.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.9M in FY2025.
STOK screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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