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Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Stoke Therapeutics Inc $17.17, price $26.11, upside -34.2%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US86150R1077

ST Stoke Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Stoke Therapeutics Inc

STOK · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $17.17 · Overvalued (−34%)
!Quality 51/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +145.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (FY2025)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$38.35 $3.37 Fair Value $17.17 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.37 – $38.35 · fair‑value band $9.29 – $22.30 · the $26.11 price screens above the $17.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the development of treatments for severe genetic diseases by upregulating protein expression. The company utilizes its proprietary Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output (TANGO) approach in developing antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) to selectively restore protein levels.

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Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the development of treatments for severe genetic diseases by upregulating protein expression. The company utilizes its proprietary Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output (TANGO) approach in developing antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) to selectively restore protein levels. Its lead product candidates include STK-002, which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of autosomal dominant optic atrophy; and Zorevunersen (STK-001), an investigational new medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome is being evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials. The company also develops programs focused on various targets, including haploinsufficiency diseases of the central nervous system and eye. It has a license and collaboration with Biogen Inc. for the development and commercialization of zorevunersen medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome; and Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. for the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel RNA-based medicines for the treatment of genetic neurodevelopmental diseases. The company was formerly known as ASOthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2016. Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) currently trades at $26.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.17, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.54 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $26.11 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.66, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $9.29 (bear) to $22.30 (bull), the price of $26.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Stoke Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $184M in FY2025 versus $3.0M in FY2021, a compound +180.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.2B · P/S ratio 78.3 · EPS (TTM) $−3.51 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −61.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.9% · Operating margin −702% · Revenue growth (YoY) −32.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −34%, STOK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.29 Fair Value $17.17 Bull $22.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $15.06 $22.48 $45.61 74
Growth DCF $14.22 $25.88 $44.68 73
5Y Revenue Exit $9.98 $15.53 $27.08 68
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $15.06 $22.48 $45.61 74
5Y Revenue Exit $9.98 $15.53 $27.08 68
10Y Revenue Exit $11.38 $21.54 $27.42 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue $7.31 $9.88 $12.45 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.73 $3.66 $5.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $14.22 $25.88 $44.68 73
Rev-Margin DCF $10.84 $17.59 $31.78 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+404.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+145.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,868.8% (2021) → −11.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.1% a year for the price.

STOK screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Stoke Therapeutics Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 649 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −34% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −36% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −33% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.13× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 78.26× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 48.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $516.34 $567.97 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Stoke Therapeutics Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Stoke Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STOK

Frequently asked questions

Is Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.17 versus a price of $26.11, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STOK?
Our model-based fair value for Stoke Therapeutics Inc is $17.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.11.
What is the quality score of STOK?
Stoke Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.29, optimistic scenario $22.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stoke Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.17, about −34% upside versus a price of $26.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.29, optimistic scenario $22.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Stoke Therapeutics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +180.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STOK use?
Our models discount Stoke Therapeutics Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Stoke Therapeutics Inc that is +19.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Stoke Therapeutics Inc grew +180.0 % a year. The price currently implies +19.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Stoke Therapeutics Inc (+19.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.61 %: that much free cash flow Stoke Therapeutics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stoke Therapeutics Inc it is $17.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $26.11. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stoke Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, STOK trades above its calculated fair value: price $26.11, fair value $17.17, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STOK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.17). For Stoke Therapeutics Inc the two are $8.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stoke Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Stoke Therapeutics Inc at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $26.11; our models calculate a fair value of $17.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STOK?
Our models span a range for Stoke Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $9.29, base $17.17, optimistic $22.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $26.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stoke Therapeutics Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −61.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STOK from its 52-week high?
Stoke Therapeutics Inc trades at $26.11, about 32% below its 52-week high of $38.35 and 17% above the low of $22.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stoke Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stoke Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $26.11, calculated fair value $17.17 (−34%), Quality Score 51/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STOK calculated?
We run Stoke Therapeutics Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Stoke Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $26.11. Our model-based fair value is $17.17, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stoke Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($9.29 to $22.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Stoke Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The market capitalisation of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is 78.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
Earnings per share at Stoke Therapeutics Inc are $−3.51. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The net margin of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is −61.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is −33.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
The operating margin of Stoke Therapeutics Inc is −702% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK)?
Revenue at Stoke Therapeutics Inc is growing −32.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +146%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Stoke Therapeutics Inc (STOK) hold?
Stoke Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $84.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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