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Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited stock ₹1,601, price ₹2,853, that is 43.9% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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SD Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited

SWANDEF · NSE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 91.9% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +74% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +346.9 %/yr in INR)
Wide moat 66/100 · thin data
Fair value ₹1,601 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 38/100
High debt
Trails peers (4/11)
Thin data
Estimate⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹2,968 ₹37.80 Fair Value ₹1,601 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹37.80 – ₹2,968 · fair‑value band ₹1,201 – ₹2,001 · the ₹2,853 price screens above the ₹1,601 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited engages in the construction of vessels, repairs, and refits of ships and rigs and heavy engineering in India and internationally. The company builds vessels for building large commercial; cargo and niche and specialized vessels; and defence vessels.

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It also provides solutions for all kinds of ships and structures including large commercial and defence vessels, jack-up rigs, and offshore vessels, as well as steel repairs, jumboizing, and conversions; machinery, piping, electrical, and propeller repairs; tailshaft & rudder service; blasting, coating, and cathodic protection.

In addition, the company offers engineering, procurement and construction, as well as load out services from its Offshore Yard. The company was formerly known as Reliance Naval and Engineering Limited and changed its name to Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited in January 2025.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Mumbai, India.

Stock analysis

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) currently trades at ₹2,853, while our estimate is ₹1,601, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: ₹1,201 (bear) to ₹2,001 (bull), the price of ₹2,853 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹2.8B in FY2026 versus ₹63.2M in FY2022, a compound +158.5%/yr. Reported net income was −₹2.3B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap ₹150B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 43.0 · P/S ratio 44.0 · EPS (TTM) ₹66.35 · Net margin 91.9% · Return on equity 25.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −102% (5-year average) · Operating margin 33.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 204% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −44%, SWANDEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear ₹1,201 Fair Value ₹1,601 Bull ₹2,001
Price ₹2,853 · Downside -43.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 79
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 13
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 59
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 62
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 86
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 97
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3,910.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+346.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,590.8% (2022) → −132.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.6% a year for the price.

SWANDEF screens overvalued: fair value 44% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 260 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 25.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets −7.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 91.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 33.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 74.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 39.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 43.0× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 43.99× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 144.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 63
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $166.47 $181.25 +9% vs SWANDEF
TransDigm Group TDG $1,226 $1,317 +7% vs SWANDEF
General Dynamics Corporation GD $367.44 $274.19 −25% vs SWANDEF
Thales S.A HO €232.70 €170.99 −27% vs SWANDEF
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $603.12 $439.21 −27% vs SWANDEF
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $548.61 $382.98 −30% vs SWANDEF
Airbus SE AIR €208.25 €112.14 −46% vs SWANDEF
RTX Corporation RTX $200.27 $88.19 −56% vs SWANDEF
General Electric Company GE $337.91 $92.26 −73% vs SWANDEF
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $219.05 $52.65 −76% vs SWANDEF

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Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWANDEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is ₹1,601 versus a price of ₹2,853, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWANDEF?
Our estimate for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is ₹1,601 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹2,853.
What is the quality score of SWANDEF?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of ₹1,601 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario ₹1,201, optimistic scenario ₹2,001. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at ₹1,601, about 44% lower versus a price of ₹2,853 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,201, optimistic scenario ₹2,001. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +64.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +158.5 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWANDEF use?
Our models discount Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited that is +64.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited grew +158.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +64.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (+64.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.69 %: that much free cash flow Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited it is ₹1,601 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of ₹2,853.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, SWANDEF trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹2,853, fair value ₹1,601, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWANDEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹2,853); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,601). For Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited the two are ₹1,252 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited worth?
The market values Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited at about ₹150B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is ₹2,853; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,601 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWANDEF?
Our models span a range for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,201, base ₹1,601, optimistic ₹2,001 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price ₹2,853). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWANDEF?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.0 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,601 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 44.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 25.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWANDEF from its 52-week high?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited trades at ₹2,853, about 4% below its 52-week high of ₹2,968 and 204% above the low of ₹939.80 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,601 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price ₹2,853, calculated fair value ₹1,601 (−44%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ₹2,853. Our estimate is ₹1,601, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,001). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The market capitalisation of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is ₹150B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is 44.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Earnings per share at Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited are ₹66.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The net margin of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is 91.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is −102% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
The operating margin of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF)?
Revenue at Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is growing +74.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +347%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited (SWANDEF) carry?
The net debt of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Limited is ₹26.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 25.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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