Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sayona Mining Limited $1.88, price $3.92, upside -52.0%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.31 – $42.38 · fair‑value band $1.40 – $2.81 · the $3.92 price screens above the $1.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits.
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Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits. Its flagship property includes the North American Lithium project that consists of 41 claims and one mining lease covering an area of approximately 1,493 hectares located in Quebec, Canada. The company was formerly known as Sayona Mining Limited and changed its name to Elevra Lithium Limited in August 2025. Elevra Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF) currently trades at $3.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.88, 52.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.40 (bear) to $2.81 (bull), the price of $3.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sayona Mining Limited reported revenue of $146M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2023. Reported net income was −$192M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/S ratio 8.88 · EPS (TTM) $−1.66 · Net margin −132% · Return on equity −26.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.7% · Operating margin −5.8% · Revenue (TTM) $155M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −52%, SYAXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.40Fair Value $1.88Bull $2.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
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Is Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.88 versus a price of $3.92, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SYAXF?
Our model-based fair value for Sayona Mining Limited is $1.88 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.92.
What is the quality score of SYAXF?
Sayona Mining Limited has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.88 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.40, optimistic scenario $2.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sayona Mining Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.88, about −52% upside versus a price of $3.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.40, optimistic scenario $2.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Sayona Mining Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $155M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sayona Mining Limited it is $1.88 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $3.92. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sayona Mining Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SYAXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.92, fair value $1.88, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYAXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.88). For Sayona Mining Limited the two are $2.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sayona Mining Limited worth?
The market values Sayona Mining Limited at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $3.92; our models calculate a fair value of $1.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYAXF?
Our models span a range for Sayona Mining Limited: cautious scenario $1.40, base $1.88, optimistic $2.81 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $3.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sayona Mining Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −26.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYAXF from its 52-week high?
Sayona Mining Limited trades at $3.92, about 61% below its 52-week high of $9.95 and 68% above the low of $2.34 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sayona Mining Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sayona Mining Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $3.92, calculated fair value $1.88 (−52%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYAXF calculated?
We run Sayona Mining Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sayona Mining Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $3.92. Our model-based fair value is $1.88, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sayona Mining Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.40 to $2.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sayona Mining Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The market capitalisation of Sayona Mining Limited is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sayona Mining Limited is 8.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Earnings per share at Sayona Mining Limited are $−1.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The net margin of Sayona Mining Limited is −132% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sayona Mining Limited is −26.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sayona Mining Limited is −6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
The operating margin of Sayona Mining Limited is −5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF)?
Revenue at Sayona Mining Limited is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Sayona Mining Limited (SYAXF) generate?
The free cash flow of Sayona Mining Limited is −$22.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026