Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tunas Alfin Tbk IDR 602, price IDR 685, upside -12.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 247.31 IDR – 1,205 IDR · fair‑value band 410.21 IDR – 813.93 IDR · the 685.00 IDR price screens above the 601.96 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Tunas Alfin Tbk engages in the manufacturing and selling of packaging products in Indonesia. The company offers dry and wet lamination, wax lamination, extrusion, and solvent less lamination; direct paper and board metallizing products; and release paper, and adhesive coating products.
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PT Tunas Alfin Tbk engages in the manufacturing and selling of packaging products in Indonesia. The company offers dry and wet lamination, wax lamination, extrusion, and solvent less lamination; direct paper and board metallizing products; and release paper, and adhesive coating products. It also provides printing services; quality control services; and trading, land transportation, and construction services. The company markets its products to cigarette, consumer food, health and hygiene products manufacturing industries. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Tunas Alfin Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Proinvestindo.
Stock analysis
Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) currently trades at 685.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 601.96 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 876.80 IDR per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the 685.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 325.20 IDR, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 410.21 IDR (bear) to 813.93 IDR (bull), the price of 685.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tunas Alfin Tbk reported revenue of 1.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.0T IDR in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 51.8B IDR in FY2025, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 927B IDR (≈ $51.8M) · P/E ratio 45.0 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) 15.21 IDR · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −12%, TALF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 410.21 IDRFair Value 601.96 IDRBull 813.93 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (11.17 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 601.96 IDR versus a price of 685.00 IDR, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TALF?
Our model-based fair value for Tunas Alfin Tbk is 601.96 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 685.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of TALF?
Tunas Alfin Tbk has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 601.96 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 410.21 IDR, optimistic scenario 813.93 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tunas Alfin Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 601.96 IDR, about −12% upside versus a price of 685.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 410.21 IDR, optimistic scenario 813.93 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Tunas Alfin Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tunas Alfin Tbk pay a dividend?
Tunas Alfin Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tunas Alfin Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TALF use?
Our models discount Tunas Alfin Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tunas Alfin Tbk that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tunas Alfin Tbk grew +7.0 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tunas Alfin Tbk (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.68 %: that much free cash flow Tunas Alfin Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tunas Alfin Tbk it is 601.96 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 685.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tunas Alfin Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TALF trades above its calculated fair value: price 685.00 IDR, fair value 601.96 IDR, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TALF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (685.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (601.96 IDR). For Tunas Alfin Tbk the two are 83.04 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tunas Alfin Tbk worth?
The market values Tunas Alfin Tbk at about 927B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 685.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 601.96 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TALF?
Our models span a range for Tunas Alfin Tbk: cautious scenario 410.21 IDR, base 601.96 IDR, optimistic 813.93 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 685.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TALF?
Tunas Alfin Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 601.96 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tunas Alfin Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TALF from its 52-week high?
Tunas Alfin Tbk trades at 685.00 IDR, about 43% below its 52-week high of 1,205 IDR and 74% above the low of 394.39 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 601.96 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tunas Alfin Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tunas Alfin Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 685.00 IDR, calculated fair value 601.96 IDR (−12%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TALF calculated?
We run Tunas Alfin Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 601.96 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tunas Alfin Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 685.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 601.96 IDR, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tunas Alfin Tbk right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (410.21 IDR to 813.93 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tunas Alfin Tbk grew −1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.8 %, EBIT margin −7.4 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tunas Alfin Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The market capitalisation of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 927B IDR (≈ $51.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Earnings per share at Tunas Alfin Tbk are 15.21 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The dividend yield of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 0.5% (payout 22.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The net margin of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
The operating margin of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Revenue at Tunas Alfin Tbk is growing −20.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF)?
Earnings per share at Tunas Alfin Tbk are growing −77.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) carry?
The net debt of Tunas Alfin Tbk is 228B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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