PT Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 826B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +66.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (813.93 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 237.94 IDR – 1,205 IDR · fair‑value band 488.36 IDR – 813.93 IDR · the 990.00 IDR price screens above the 651.15 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
PT Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF) currently trades at 990.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 651.15 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Tunas Alfin Tbk generated revenue of 1.4T IDR at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 20.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at 228B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 488.36 IDR (bear case) to 813.93 IDR (bull case); at 990.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 273% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -34%, TALF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (833.95 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (51.61 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Tunas Alfin Tbk engages in the manufacturing and selling of packaging products in Indonesia. The company offers dry and wet lamination, wax lamination, extrusion, and solvent less lamination; direct paper and board metallizing products; and release paper, and adhesive coating products.
Full company description
PT Tunas Alfin Tbk engages in the manufacturing and selling of packaging products in Indonesia. The company offers dry and wet lamination, wax lamination, extrusion, and solvent less lamination; direct paper and board metallizing products; and release paper, and adhesive coating products. It also provides printing services; quality control services; and trading, land transportation, and construction services. The company markets its products to cigarette, consumer food, health and hygiene products manufacturing industries. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Tunas Alfin Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Proinvestindo.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Tunas Alfin Tbk reported revenue of 1.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.0T IDR in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 51.8B IDR in FY2025, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TALF screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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