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Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. $12.67, price $24.98, upside -49.3%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US8789721086

TT Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc.

TECX · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $12.67 · Strongly overvalued (−49%)
!Quality 30/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 3/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$118.92 $6.94 Fair Value $12.67 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.94 – $118.92 · fair‑value band $8.36 – $15.83 · the $24.98 price screens above the $12.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery and development of therapeutic proteins and antibodies to modulate the activity of G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). It develops GEODe technology platform to enable the discovery and development of GPCR-targeted biologic medicines.

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Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery and development of therapeutic proteins and antibodies to modulate the activity of G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). It develops GEODe technology platform to enable the discovery and development of GPCR-targeted biologic medicines. The company's lead product is TX45, a Fc-relaxin fusion molecule that activates the RXFP1 receptor, the GPCR target of the hormone, and relaxin. It is also developing TX2100 for the treatment of hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia; GPCR modulator bispecific for treating fibrosis; and other GPCR modulators. The company is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX) currently trades at $24.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.67, implying the stock looks roughly 97.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $8.36 (bear) to $15.83 (bull), the price of $24.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$74.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $528M · EPS (TTM) $−4.57 · Return on equity −33.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −60.1% · Free cash flow −$60.3M · Net cash $253M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −49%, TECX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.36 Fair Value $12.67 Bull $15.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $6.43 $8.61 $12.86 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.43 $8.61 $12.86 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 23
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TECX screens 97% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 653 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −49% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.10× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $368.08 $280.94 −24%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. · Fair Value
$12.67 −97%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TECX

Frequently asked questions

Is Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.67 versus a price of $24.98, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TECX?
Our model-based fair value for Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is $12.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.98.
What is the quality score of TECX?
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.36, optimistic scenario $15.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.67, about −49% upside versus a price of $24.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.36, optimistic scenario $15.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. it is $12.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.98. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TECX trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.98, fair value $12.67, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TECX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.67). For Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. the two are $12.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. worth?
The market values Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. at about $528M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.98; our models calculate a fair value of $12.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TECX?
Our models span a range for Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc.: cautious scenario $8.36, base $12.67, optimistic $15.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −33.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TECX from its 52-week high?
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. trades at $24.98, about 34% below its 52-week high of $37.93 and 70% above the low of $14.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.98, calculated fair value $12.67 (−49%), Quality Score 30/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TECX calculated?
We run Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.98. Our model-based fair value is $12.67, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($8.36 to $15.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
The market capitalisation of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is $528M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
Earnings per share at Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. are $−4.57. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is −33.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is −60.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX) generate?
The free cash flow of Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is −$60.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. (TECX) hold?
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $253M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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