Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc (TECX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $577M
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc
TECX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −12.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.36 to $13.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.94 – $140.16 · fair‑value band $7.36 – $13.95 · the $30.98 price screens above the $11.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc (TECX) currently trades at $30.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.15, implying the stock looks roughly 64.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -31.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $253M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.36 (bear case) to $13.95 (bull case); at $30.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -64%, TECX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery and development of therapeutic proteins and antibodies to modulate the activity of G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). It develops GEODe technology platform to enable the discovery and development of GPCR-targeted biologic medicines.
Full company description
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery and development of therapeutic proteins and antibodies to modulate the activity of G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). It develops GEODe technology platform to enable the discovery and development of GPCR-targeted biologic medicines. The company's lead product is TX45, a Fc-relaxin fusion molecule that activates the RXFP1 receptor, the GPCR target of the hormone, and relaxin. It is also developing TX2100 for the treatment of hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia; GPCR modulator bispecific for treating fibrosis; and other GPCR modulators. The company is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$74.2M in FY2025.
TECX screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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