Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tokyo Electron Limited stock $12.52, price $30.80, upside -59.4%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tokyo Electron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor production equipment in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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The company provides coaters/developers, plasma etch systems, cleaning systems, deposition systems, test systems, 3D integration systems, SiC Epitaxial CVD systems, and gas cluster beam systems, as well as other deposition and lithography and other products.
It also offers engineering services; spare parts/repairs; upgrades/modification; and used products, as well as display production equipment. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) currently trades at $30.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.52, 59.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $18.63 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $30.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.46, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.85 (bear) to $18.59 (bull), the price of $30.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tokyo Electron Limited reported revenue of ¥2.4T in FY2026 versus ¥2.2T in FY2023, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥574B in FY2026, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $145B Large · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 8.23 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 30.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −59%, TELWY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.85Fair Value $12.52Bull$18.59
Price $30.80 · Upside -59.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5159 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 26%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+24.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2027 (+40.0%) comes with 398% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about −71.9%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price and +21.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong demand for AI-related chipmaking equipment supports solid margins and zero debt, yet limited governance signals constrain moat assessment.
Main risk: Worries about hyperscalers achieving adequate returns on infrastructure spending could trigger an equipment cycle pullback, reducing demand.
Tokyo Electron reports strong demand for its chipmaking equipment tied to AI buildouts and raises its full-year profit forecast well above expectations. Yet broader worries persist about whether hyperscalers will see adequate returns on their massive infrastructure spending, leaving the equipment cycle vulnerable to any pullback. Our models view the shares as overvalued. Will the company keep riding the current wave longer than skeptics expect, or will caution spread to its customers first?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 238 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokyo Electron Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TELWY
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.52 versus a price of $30.80, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TELWY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Electron Limited is $12.52 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.80.
What is the quality score of TELWY?
Tokyo Electron Limited has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.52 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $18.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Electron Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.52, about −59% upside versus a price of $30.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $18.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Tokyo Electron Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Tokyo Electron Limited pay a dividend?
Tokyo Electron Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyo Electron Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TELWY use?
Our models discount Tokyo Electron Limited at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyo Electron Limited that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Tokyo Electron Limited grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyo Electron Limited (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.49 %: that much free cash flow Tokyo Electron Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Electron Limited it is $12.52 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of $30.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Electron Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, TELWY trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.80, fair value $12.52, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TELWY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.52). For Tokyo Electron Limited the two are $18.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Electron Limited worth?
The market values Tokyo Electron Limited at about $145B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is $30.80; our models calculate a fair value of $12.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TELWY?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Electron Limited: cautious scenario $7.85, base $12.52, optimistic $18.59 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price $30.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TELWY?
Tokyo Electron Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.0 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 11.0, P/S 8.7, EV/EBITDA 28.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TELWY?
The PEG ratio of Tokyo Electron Limited is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Electron Limited (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 30.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TELWY from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Electron Limited trades at $30.80, about 36% below its 52-week high of $48.47 and 62% above the low of $19.05 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Electron Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Electron Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price $30.80, calculated fair value $12.52 (−59%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TELWY calculated?
We run Tokyo Electron Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Electron Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $30.80. Our model-based fair value is $12.52, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Electron Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($7.85 to $18.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tokyo Electron Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Limited is $145B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Electron Limited is 8.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Limited are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Limited is 1.3% (payout 43.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The net margin of Tokyo Electron Limited is 23.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Electron Limited is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Electron Limited is 23.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Electron Limited is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Revenue at Tokyo Electron Limited is growing +33.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Limited are growing +40.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tokyo Electron Limited (TELWY) hold?
Tokyo Electron Limited holds more cash than debt, ¥451B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 30, 2026