Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk IDR 502, price IDR 850, upside -41.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk engages in the production and sale of polyester products in Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, the United States, China, Germany, and internationally. The company operates through Polyester Chip, Polyester Staple Fiber, Polyester Filament Yarn, and RCL segments. It also exports its products.
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PT Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk engages in the production and sale of polyester products in Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, the United States, China, Germany, and internationally. The company operates through Polyester Chip, Polyester Staple Fiber, Polyester Filament Yarn, and RCL segments. It also exports its products. PT Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) currently trades at 850.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 501.84 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 669.12 IDR per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the 850.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 167.28 IDR, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 431.79 IDR (bear) to 602.10 IDR (bull), the price of 850.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $186M in FY2025 versus $214M in FY2021, a compound −3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.1T IDR (≈ $229M) · EPS (TTM) −19.82 IDR · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin −5.1% · Revenue (TTM) $190M · Revenue growth (YoY) +3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −41%, TFCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 431.79 IDRFair Value 501.84 IDRBull 602.10 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.5% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price.
Compare Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 344 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF22.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)17· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TFCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 501.84 IDR versus a price of 850.00 IDR, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TFCO?
Our model-based fair value for Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is 501.84 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 850.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of TFCO?
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 501.84 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 431.79 IDR, optimistic scenario 602.10 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 501.84 IDR, about −41% upside versus a price of 850.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 431.79 IDR, optimistic scenario 602.10 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $190M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TFCO use?
Our models discount Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk at 14.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk that is +14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (+14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.44 %: that much free cash flow Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk it is 501.84 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 850.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TFCO trades above its calculated fair value: price 850.00 IDR, fair value 501.84 IDR, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (850.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (501.84 IDR). For Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk the two are 348.16 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk at about 4.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 850.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 501.84 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFCO?
Our models span a range for Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 431.79 IDR, base 501.84 IDR, optimistic 602.10 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 850.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFCO from its 52-week high?
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk trades at 850.00 IDR, about 27% below its 52-week high of 1,165 IDR and 70% above the low of 500.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 501.84 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Shenzhou International Group, Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 850.00 IDR, calculated fair value 501.84 IDR (−41%), Quality Score 57/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFCO calculated?
We run Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 501.84 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 850.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 501.84 IDR, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (602.10 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The market capitalisation of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is 4.1T IDR (≈ $229M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Earnings per share at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk are −19.82 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The net margin of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
The operating margin of Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is −5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Revenue at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO)?
Earnings per share at Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk are growing −48.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO) hold?
Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk holds more cash than debt, $42.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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