Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited THB 18.94, price THB 10.30, upside +83.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.81 THB – 44.86 THB · fair‑value band 14.20 THB – 23.67 THB · the 10.30 THB price screens below the 18.94 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the life insurance, non-life insurance, financial services, and other businesses in Thailand.
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Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the life insurance, non-life insurance, financial services, and other businesses in Thailand. The company is involved in the underwriting of life assurance; underwriting of non-life, personal accident, and health insurance; leasing and hire purchase services; and lending and selling of secondhand cars. It is also involved in the rental and development of real estate; management and consultant, investing consultant, and consultant and training services, as well as provision of consultation of management; telephone customer services; operation of outsources surveyors; provision of loan services for businesses and individuals; leasing and lending businesses; and life and non-life insurance brokerage and support services. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of Mongkolsiri Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) currently trades at 10.30 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.94 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 18.53 THB per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the 10.30 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.49 THB, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 14.20 THB (bear) to 23.67 THB (bull), the price of 10.30 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited reported revenue of 12.9B THB in FY2025 versus 24.3B THB in FY2021, a compound −14.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 9.0B THB (≈ $271M) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) 1.64 THB · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 84%, TGH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 14.20 THBFair Value 18.94 THBBull 23.67 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.13 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.1%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 178% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.5% a year for the price.
Compare Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+84% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.69× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGH
Frequently asked questions
Is Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.94 THB versus a price of 10.30 THB, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TGH?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 18.94 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10.30 THB.
What is the quality score of TGH?
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.94 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 14.20 THB, optimistic scenario 23.67 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.94 THB, about +84% upside versus a price of 10.30 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 14.20 THB, optimistic scenario 23.67 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.1B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +22.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TGH use?
Our models discount Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited that is +22.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited grew -9.1 % a year. The price currently implies +22.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (+22.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.16 %: that much free cash flow Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited it is 18.94 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 10.30 THB. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TGH trades below its calculated fair value: price 10.30 THB, fair value 18.94 THB, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10.30 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.94 THB). For Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited the two are 8.64 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited at about 9.0B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 10.30 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 18.94 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGH?
Our models span a range for Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 14.20 THB, base 18.94 THB, optimistic 23.67 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 10.30 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TGH?
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.94 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 1.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGH from its 52-week high?
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited trades at 10.30 THB, about 15% below its 52-week high of 12.10 THB and 5% above the low of 9.81 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.94 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 10.30 THB, calculated fair value 18.94 THB (+84%), Quality Score 46/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGH calculated?
We run Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.94 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited currently trades 84 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 10.30 THB. Our model-based fair value is 18.94 THB, about +84% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (14.20 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 9.0B THB (≈ $271M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Earnings per share at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited are 1.64 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The dividend yield of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 1.0% (payout 6.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The net margin of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
The operating margin of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Revenue at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH)?
Earnings per share at Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited are growing +162% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TGH) carry?
The net debt of Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is 14.6B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 23.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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