Thai Group (TGH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · TH · Market cap 9.0B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −4.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 61% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.90 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.81 THB – 44.86 THB · fair‑value band 13.90 THB – 23.16 THB · the 11.50 THB price screens below the 18.53 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Thai Group (TGH) currently trades at 11.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.53 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 61.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thai Group generated revenue of 13.0B THB at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at 14.6B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 13.90 THB (bear case) to 23.16 THB (bull case); at 11.50 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 61%, TGH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (18.53 THB) versus Asset-Based (9.49 THB). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the life insurance, non-life insurance, financial services, and other businesses in Thailand.
Full company description
Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the life insurance, non-life insurance, financial services, and other businesses in Thailand. The company is involved in the underwriting of life assurance; underwriting of non-life, personal accident, and health insurance; leasing and hire purchase services; and lending and selling of secondhand cars. It is also involved in the rental and development of real estate; management and consultant, investing consultant, and consultant and training services, as well as provision of consultation of management; telephone customer services; operation of outsources surveyors; provision of loan services for businesses and individuals; leasing and lending businesses; and life and non-life insurance brokerage and support services. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. Thai Group Holdings Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of Mongkolsiri Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thai Group reported revenue of 12.9B THB in FY2025 versus 24.3B THB in FY2021, a compound −14.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B THB in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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