The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc stock $153, price $243, that is 37.2% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.17 – $249.93 · fair‑value band $123.30 – $222.18 · the $242.90 price screens above the $152.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other.
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The company offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other core commercial coverage; and professional and executive lines, marine, and surety and other, as well as specialty property and casualty products comprising Hanover program business, excess and surplus business, Hanover specialty industrial, and specialty general liability business coverage.
It also provides personal automobile; and homeowners and other personal lines, including residences and personal property, liability claims, personal umbrella, inland marine, fire, personal watercraft, personal cyber, and other miscellaneous coverages.
In addition, the company offers insurance products for collector cars, motorcycles, off-road vehicles, condominiums, valuable items, business owners, international, and management and professional liability; and for the construction, cultural and educational institutions, financial intuitions, healthcare, human services, life sciences, manufacturing, professional services, real estate, retail, technology, and wholesale and distribution industries.
It markets its products and services through independent agents and brokers. The company was formerly known as Allmerica Financial Corp. and changed its name to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. in December 2005.
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) currently trades at $242.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.51, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $177.74 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $242.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $51.75, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $123.30 (bear) to $222.18 (bull), the price of $242.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $5.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $663M in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.8B Mid · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $21.12 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 21.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −37%, THG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$123.30Fair Value $152.51Bull$222.18
Price $242.90 · Downside -37.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.90 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.8M and none bought.
SaleWillard T LeeExecutive Vice President2× since May 4, 2026: 10,946 shares, avg. $243.19$2.7MNov 4, 2026
SaleDennis Francis KerriganExecutive Vice President2× since May 20, 2026: 14,917 shares, avg. $209.35$3.1MAug 20, 2026
SaleTheodore H Bunting JRDirector1,200 shares at $229.12$274,938Aug 6, 2026
SaleJane D CarlinDirector2× since Feb 27, 2026: 2,200 shares, avg. $203.91$448,592Aug 3, 2026
SaleBryan J SalvatoreExecutive Vice President16,394 shares at $185.76$3.0MJun 3, 2026
SaleFrancisco AristeguietaDirector1,000 shares at $195.37$195,370May 21, 2026
SaleJohn C RochePresident and CEO, Director2× since May 18, 2026: 13,609 shares, avg. $195.41$2.7MMay 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDenise LowsleyExecutive Vice President3× since Nov 12, 2025: 6,856 shares, avg. $188.80$1.3MMay 14, 2026
SaleCynthia EganDirector3,400 shares at $188.50$640,900May 1, 2026
SaleRichard W LaveyExecutive Vice President24,420 shares at $178.92$4.4MFeb 5, 2026
Plus 55 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 11.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
2025 sits 478% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.3% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows potential strength through technology and AI aimed at efficiency gains and premium growth, yet its main weakness is the thin public signals and insufficient evidence for a durable competitive advantage.
Main risk: The biggest risk is that efficiency gains from technology and AI prove harder to achieve than expected, which would hinder the targeted expense ratio reduction and pressure profitability.
The company aims to cut its expense ratio to 28.5 percent by 2031 by leveraging technology and AI across underwriting and claims. Execution has produced solid returns lately, but our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the efficiency gains and premium growth targets through 2031 more than offset industry headwinds, or will they prove harder to achieve than expected?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Hanover Insurance Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THG
Frequently asked questions
Is The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $152.51 versus a price of $242.90, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THG?
Our model-based fair value for The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is $152.51 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $242.90.
What is the quality score of THG?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $152.51 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $123.30, optimistic scenario $222.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Hanover Insurance Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $152.51, about 37% lower versus a price of $242.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $123.30, optimistic scenario $222.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does The Hanover Insurance Group Inc pay a dividend?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc pays a dividend of $3.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 11, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2005. The payout ratio is 17.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 8.96 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Hanover Insurance Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THG use?
Our models discount The Hanover Insurance Group Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Hanover Insurance Group Inc that is -15.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (-15.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.27 %: that much free cash flow The Hanover Insurance Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Hanover Insurance Group Inc it is $152.51 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $242.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is The Hanover Insurance Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, THG trades above its calculated fair value: price $242.90, fair value $152.51, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($242.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($152.51). For The Hanover Insurance Group Inc the two are $90.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Hanover Insurance Group Inc worth?
The market values The Hanover Insurance Group Inc at about $8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $242.90; our models calculate a fair value of $152.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THG?
Our models span a range for The Hanover Insurance Group Inc: cautious scenario $123.30, base $152.51, optimistic $222.18 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $242.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of THG?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $152.51 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 17.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of THG?
The PEG ratio of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 0.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 21.9%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is THG from its 52-week high?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at $242.90, about 3% below its 52-week high of $249.93 and 46% above the low of $165.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $152.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Hanover Insurance Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Hanover Insurance Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $242.90, calculated fair value $152.51 (−37%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THG calculated?
We run The Hanover Insurance Group Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $152.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. The Hanover Insurance Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $242.90. Our model-based fair value is $152.51, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Hanover Insurance Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($222.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($123.30 to $222.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) come from?
Earnings per share at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The market capitalisation of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is $8.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 1.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Earnings per share at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc are $21.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The dividend yield of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 1.5% (payout 17.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The net margin of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 11.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
The operating margin of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Revenue at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)?
Earnings per share at The Hanover Insurance Group Inc are growing +24.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) carry?
The net debt of The Hanover Insurance Group Inc is $95.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026