Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 4.0B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 22% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (25.04 THB to 45.36 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from 25.04 THB (bear) to 45.36 THB (bull), base 32.88 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 72/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.18 THB – 27.50 THB · fair‑value band 25.04 THB – 45.36 THB · the 27.00 THB price screens below the 32.88 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD) currently trades at 27.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.88 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 21.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company generated revenue of 1.7B THB at a net margin of 20.8%. Revenue declined 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 192M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 25.04 THB (bear case) to 45.36 THB (bull case); at 27.00 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 22%, TMD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (32.33 THB) versus Asset-Based (15.06 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments.
Full company description
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments. The company also provides office buildings for rent, as well as operates as a distributor of raw materials for the production of containers. Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company reported revenue of 1.8B THB in FY2025 versus 2.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 374M THB in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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