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Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 4.0B THB

TM Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company TMD · BK
Price27.00 THB
Fair Value32.88 THB
Upside+21.8%
Quality72/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 20.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Wide moat 65/100
Evidence: Medium Range 25.04 THB – 45.36 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +1.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 22% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (25.04 THB to 45.36 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from 25.04 THB (bear) to 45.36 THB (bull), base 32.88 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 72/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

27.50 THB 15.18 THB Fair Value 32.88 THB Nov 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 15.18 THB – 27.50 THB · fair‑value band 25.04 THB – 45.36 THB · the 27.00 THB price screens below the 32.88 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD) currently trades at 27.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.88 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 21.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company generated revenue of 1.7B THB at a net margin of 20.8%. Revenue declined 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 192M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 25.04 THB (bear case) to 45.36 THB (bull case); at 27.00 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 22%, TMD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 26.28 THB 33.89 THB 47.56 THB 80
Residual Income 20.14 THB 22.57 THB 33.58 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 17.74 THB 23.75 THB 31.60 THB 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 25.40 THB 33.22 THB 48.59 THB 38
Owner Earnings 25.23 THB 33.00 THB 48.26 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 17.74 THB 23.18 THB 31.41 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 22.48 THB 31.22 THB 43.25 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 27.37 THB 39.51 THB 54.54 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 20.28 THB 25.35 THB 30.87 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 23.45 THB 30.51 THB 38.31 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 26.38 THB 35.84 THB 45.40 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 16.94 THB 27.34 THB 32.99 THB 54
EPV 19.56 THB 22.46 THB 24.95 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 15.01 THB 17.97 THB 21.12 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 15.01 THB 19.64 THB 25.25 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 31.77 THB 42.36 THB 52.95 THB 63
P/S Multiple 13.43 THB 17.91 THB 22.38 THB 58
P/B Multiple 31.77 THB 42.36 THB 52.95 THB 55
EV/EBIT 28.52 THB 37.61 THB 46.71 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 23.70 THB 31.18 THB 38.67 THB 54
EV/Revenue 13.78 THB 19.15 THB 24.52 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 11.24 THB 15.06 THB 22.48 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 26.28 THB 33.89 THB 47.56 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 17.74 THB 23.75 THB 31.60 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 20.14 THB 22.57 THB 33.58 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 19.56 THB 22.46 THB 25.69 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 22.63 THB 32.33 THB 42.03 THB 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (32.33 THB) versus Asset-Based (15.06 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.7B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.9%
Net margin 20.8%
Return on equity 10.4%
Free cash flow 379M THB FY2025
P/E ratio 10.9
More key figures
Operating margin 27.0%
EPS (TTM) 2.43 THB
EPS growth (YoY) -9.7%
Net cash 192M THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments.

Full company description

Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments. The company also provides office buildings for rent, as well as operates as a distributor of raw materials for the production of containers. Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company reported revenue of 1.8B THB in FY2025 versus 2.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 374M THB in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.8B THB
Latest YoY
−2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Revenue −5.4%/yr
FY21 2.2B THB
FY22 2.2B THB
FY23 1.8B THB
FY24 1.8B THB
FY25 1.8B THB
Net income +0.3%/yr
FY21 370M THB
FY22 312M THB
FY23 314M THB
FY24 331M THB
FY25 374M THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.7 pp

of which total revenue −0.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +1.7 pp
Tax rate −1.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMD

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +22% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.27× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.14× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 62 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 1
PAST 41 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Stora Enso Oyj STER kr 101.90 kr 126.39 +24%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.10 ¥20.88 -28%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32.88 THB versus a price of 27.00 THB, about +22% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TMD?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company is 32.88 THB (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 27.00 THB.
What is the quality score of TMD?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company (TMD)?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TMD?
The net profit margin of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company is about 20.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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