Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited THB 25.71, price THB 27.25, upside -5.7%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.52 THB – 27.50 THB · fair‑value band 20.56 THB – 32.01 THB · the 27.25 THB price screens above the 25.71 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments.
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Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes metal drums and plastic products in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Productions and Sales of Metal Drums; Productions and Sales of Plastic Products; Rental Service and Income; and Others segments. The company also provides office buildings for rent, as well as operates as a distributor of raw materials for the production of containers. Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) currently trades at 27.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.71 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 6.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 32.33 THB per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the 27.25 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 13.70 THB, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 20.56 THB (bear) to 32.01 THB (bull), the price of 27.25 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited reported revenue of 1.8B THB in FY2025 versus 2.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 374M THB in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.1B THB (≈ $123M) · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) 2.43 THB · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 20.9% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −6%, TMD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.56 THBFair Value 25.71 THBBull 32.01 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.78 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price.
Compare Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMD
Frequently asked questions
Is Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.71 THB versus a price of 27.25 THB, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TMD?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 25.71 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 27.25 THB.
What is the quality score of TMD?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.71 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.56 THB, optimistic scenario 32.01 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.71 THB, about −6% upside versus a price of 27.25 THB (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 20.56 THB, optimistic scenario 32.01 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMD use?
Our models discount Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited grew +0.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.28 %: that much free cash flow Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited it is 25.71 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 27.25 THB. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TMD trades above its calculated fair value: price 27.25 THB, fair value 25.71 THB, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (27.25 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.71 THB). For Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited the two are 1.54 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited at about 4.1B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 27.25 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 25.71 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMD?
Our models span a range for Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 20.56 THB, base 25.71 THB, optimistic 32.01 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 27.25 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMD?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 25.71 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TMD?
The PEG ratio of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMD from its 52-week high?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited trades at 27.25 THB, about 1% below its 52-week high of 27.50 THB and 17% above the low of 23.33 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.71 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 27.25 THB, calculated fair value 25.71 THB (−6%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMD calculated?
We run Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.71 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 27.25 THB. Our model-based fair value is 25.71 THB, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) come from?
Earnings per share at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited grew +1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 4.1B THB (≈ $123M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 2.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Earnings per share at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited are 2.43 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The dividend yield of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 6.4% (payout 72.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The net margin of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 20.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
The operating margin of Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Revenue at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited is growing −8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD)?
Earnings per share at Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited are growing −9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited (TMD) hold?
Thai Metal Drum Manufacturing Public Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 192M THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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