TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of TransMedics Group Inc $82.35, price $83.90, upside -1.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.58 – $176.11 · fair‑value band $48.08 – $133.65 · the $83.90 price screens above the $82.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally.
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TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company provides Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its OCS includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for preservation of DBD donor hearts deemed unsuitable due to limitations of cold storage and for ex vivo reanimation, functional monitoring, and beating-heart preservation of donation-after-circulatory-death hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of DBD and DCD of donor livers. The company also developed national OCS program, a turnkey solution for outsourced organ retrieval; and provides OCS organ management and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, and other coordination activity. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) currently trades at $83.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $82.35, implying the stock looks roughly 1.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $255.81 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $83.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.17, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $48.08 (bear) to $133.65 (bull), the price of $83.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TransMedics Group Inc reported revenue of $605M in FY2025 versus $30.3M in FY2021, a compound +111.5%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.4B · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 6.03 · EPS (TTM) $4.37 · Net margin 31.4% · Return on equity 45.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −2%, TMDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $48.08Fair Value $82.35Bull $133.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+86.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+88.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−102.9% (2020) → 17.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.8% a year for the price and +13.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 365 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.06× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TransMedics Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMDX
Frequently asked questions
Is TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $82.35 versus a price of $83.90, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TMDX?
Our model-based fair value for TransMedics Group Inc is $82.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $83.90.
What is the quality score of TMDX?
TransMedics Group Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $82.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.08, optimistic scenario $133.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TransMedics Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $82.35, about −2% upside versus a price of $83.90 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $48.08, optimistic scenario $133.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
TransMedics Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $636M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TransMedics Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +88.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMDX use?
Our models discount TransMedics Group Inc at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TransMedics Group Inc that is +19.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TransMedics Group Inc grew +88.2 % a year. The price currently implies +19.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TransMedics Group Inc (+19.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.93 %: that much free cash flow TransMedics Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TransMedics Group Inc it is $82.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $83.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TransMedics Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TMDX trades above its calculated fair value: price $83.90, fair value $82.35, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMDX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($83.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($82.35). For TransMedics Group Inc the two are $1.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TransMedics Group Inc worth?
The market values TransMedics Group Inc at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $83.90; our models calculate a fair value of $82.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMDX?
Our models span a range for TransMedics Group Inc: cautious scenario $48.08, base $82.35, optimistic $133.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $83.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMDX?
TransMedics Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $82.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.5, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 28.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Balance-sheet figures for TransMedics Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 45.2%, debt of 1.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMDX from its 52-week high?
TransMedics Group Inc trades at $83.90, about 44% below its 52-week high of $150.42 and 35% above the low of $62.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $82.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TransMedics Group Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TransMedics Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $83.90, calculated fair value $82.35 (−2%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMDX calculated?
We run TransMedics Group Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $82.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TransMedics Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $83.90. Our model-based fair value is $82.35, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TransMedics Group Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($48.08 to $133.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of TransMedics Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The market capitalisation of TransMedics Group Inc is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TransMedics Group Inc is 6.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Earnings per share at TransMedics Group Inc are $4.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The net margin of TransMedics Group Inc is 31.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TransMedics Group Inc is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TransMedics Group Inc is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
The operating margin of TransMedics Group Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Revenue at TransMedics Group Inc is growing +21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +86.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)?
Earnings per share at TransMedics Group Inc are growing −71.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) hold?
TransMedics Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $18.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026