TransMedics Group (TMDX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.6B
TransMedics Group
TMDX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +19.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($39.09 to $115.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.58 – $176.11 · fair‑value band $39.09 – $115.69 · the $83.89 price screens above the $52.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
TransMedics Group (TMDX) currently trades at $83.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.12, implying the stock looks roughly 37.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TransMedics Group generated revenue of $636M at a net margin of 27.0%. Revenue grew 21.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $18.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $39.09 (bear case) to $115.69 (bull case); at $83.89, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -38%, TMDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($255.81) versus Asset-Based ($9.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company provides Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its OCS includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for preservation of DBD donor hearts deemed unsuitable due to limitations of cold storage and for ex vivo reanimation, functional monitoring, and beating-heart preservation of donation-after-circulatory-death hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of DBD and DCD of donor livers. The company also developed national OCS program, a turnkey solution for outsourced organ retrieval; and provides OCS organ management and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, and other coordination activity. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TransMedics Group reported revenue of $605M in FY2025 versus $30.3M in FY2021, a compound +111.5%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025.
TMDX screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TransMedics Stock Dips Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Margins Contract
- Why TransMedics Stock Is Sinking Today
- TransMedics Group (TMDX) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings But Full After 171% Gain
- TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic ...
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 351 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $100.68 | $74.79 | -26% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $316.44 | $186.28 | -41% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $83.56 | $65.57 | -22% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $43.04 | $38.44 | -11% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $85.73 | $41.02 | -52% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €34.59 | €33.87 | -2% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥149.43 | ¥147.63 | -1% |
| Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co 688271 | ¥109.00 | ¥43.60 | -60% |
| Demant A/S DEMANT | kr 276.60 | kr 161.17 | -42% |
| Getinge AB GETIB | kr 206.80 | kr 192.14 | -7% |
Compare TransMedics Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is TransMedics Group (TMDX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TMDX?
What is the quality score of TMDX?
What is the revenue of TransMedics Group (TMDX)?
What is the net profit margin of TMDX?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track TransMedics Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.