Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tokyo Electron Ltd. $58.91, price $79.00, upside -25.4%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.17 – $96.03 · fair‑value band $33.94 – $82.44 · the $79.00 price screens above the $58.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Tokyo Electron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor production equipment in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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Tokyo Electron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor production equipment in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company provides coaters/developers, plasma etch systems, cleaning systems, deposition systems, test systems, 3D integration systems, SiC Epitaxial CVD systems, and gas cluster beam systems, as well as other deposition and lithography and other products. It also offers engineering services; spare parts/repairs; upgrades/modification; and used products. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF) currently trades at $79.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.91, 25.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $30.91 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $79.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $12.95, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $33.94 (bear) to $82.44 (bull), the price of $79.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tokyo Electron Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.4T in FY2026 versus ¥2.0T in FY2022, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥574B in FY2026, compounding +7.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $160B · P/E ratio 59.3 · P/S ratio 13.9 · EPS (TTM) $7.76 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 29.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 137% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −25%, TOELF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $33.94Fair Value $58.91Bull $82.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.2% vs 6.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 26%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.7%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 214 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokyo Electron Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOELF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.91 versus a price of $79.00, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOELF?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Electron Ltd. is $58.91 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.00.
What is the quality score of TOELF?
Tokyo Electron Ltd. has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.91 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.94, optimistic scenario $82.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Electron Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.91, about −25% upside versus a price of $79.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $33.94, optimistic scenario $82.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Tokyo Electron Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Tokyo Electron Ltd. pay a dividend?
Tokyo Electron Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Electron Ltd. it is $58.91 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $79.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TOELF trades above its calculated fair value: price $79.00, fair value $58.91, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOELF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.91). For Tokyo Electron Ltd. the two are $20.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Electron Ltd. worth?
The market values Tokyo Electron Ltd. at about $160B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $79.00; our models calculate a fair value of $58.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOELF?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Electron Ltd.: cautious scenario $33.94, base $58.91, optimistic $82.44 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $79.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOELF?
Tokyo Electron Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.3 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TOELF?
The PEG ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 2.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Electron Ltd. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 29.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOELF from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Electron Ltd. trades at $79.00, about 18% below its 52-week high of $96.03 and 137% above the low of $33.34 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Electron Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $79.00, calculated fair value $58.91 (−25%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOELF calculated?
We run Tokyo Electron Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Electron Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $79.00. Our model-based fair value is $58.91, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Electron Ltd. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($33.94 to $82.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tokyo Electron Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is $160B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 13.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Ltd. are $7.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 1.0% (payout 10.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The net margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 23.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 29.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 25.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Revenue at Tokyo Electron Ltd. is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Ltd. are growing +50.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tokyo Electron Ltd. is $320B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Sep 28, 2026