TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of TOYO Co., Ltd $11.17, price $4.38, upside +155.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range $1.55 – $16.99 · fair‑value band $6.13 – $13.96 · the $4.38 price screens below the $11.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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TOYO Co., Ltd. engages in the upstream production of wafer and silicon, midstream production of solar cell, downstream production of photovoltaic (PV) modules, and other stages of the solar power supply chain in Asia and the United States. It designs, manufactures, and sells solar cells, modules, and related products. TOYO Co., Ltd.
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TOYO Co., Ltd. engages in the upstream production of wafer and silicon, midstream production of solar cell, downstream production of photovoltaic (PV) modules, and other stages of the solar power supply chain in Asia and the United States. It designs, manufactures, and sells solar cells, modules, and related products. TOYO Co., Ltd. was founded in 2022 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares (TOYO) currently trades at $4.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.17, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $42.50 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $4.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.74, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $6.13 (bear) to $13.96 (bull), the price of $4.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares reported revenue of $427M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was $39.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $188M · P/E ratio 1.9 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) $2.25 · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 57.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 19.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 155%, TOYO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.13Fair Value $11.17Bull $13.96
Price $4.38 · Upside +155.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +75.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+75.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 68% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (21 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+155.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)57.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper
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Is TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.17 versus a price of $4.38, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOYO?
Our model-based fair value for TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is $11.17 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.38.
What is the quality score of TOYO?
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.17 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.13, optimistic scenario $13.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.17, about +155% upside versus a price of $4.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.13, optimistic scenario $13.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $549M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares would have to grow free cash flow by -12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +161.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOYO use?
Our models discount TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares that is -12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares grew +161.8 % a year. The price currently implies -12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares (-12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.43 %: that much free cash flow TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares it is $11.17 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $4.38. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TOYO trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.38, fair value $11.17, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOYO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.17). For TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares the two are $6.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares worth?
The market values TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares at about $188M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $4.38; our models calculate a fair value of $11.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOYO?
Our models span a range for TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares: cautious scenario $6.13, base $11.17, optimistic $13.96 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $4.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOYO?
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Balance-sheet figures for TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 57.5%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOYO from its 52-week high?
TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares trades at $4.38, about 74% below its 52-week high of $16.99 and 5% above the low of $4.18 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $4.38, calculated fair value $11.17 (+155%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOYO calculated?
We run TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was $4.38. Our model-based fair value is $11.17, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.13 to $13.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The market capitalisation of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is $188M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Earnings per share at TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares are $2.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The net margin of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is 57.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
The operating margin of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Revenue at TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO)?
Earnings per share at TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares are growing +181% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TOYO Co., Ltd (TOYO) carry?
The net debt of TOYO Co., Ltd Ordinary Shares is $21.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026