Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Timberland Bancorp Inc $46.25, price $45.10, upside +2.6%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.36 – $47.00 · fair‑value band $34.69 – $57.81 · the $45.10 price screens below the $46.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington. It offers various deposit products, including money market deposit, checking, and regular savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.
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Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington. It offers various deposit products, including money market deposit, checking, and regular savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides one-to four-family residential, multi-family, commercial real estate loans, and land loans; and construction lending products, such as custom and owner/builder, speculative one- to four-family, commercial, multi-family, and land development. In addition, it offers consumer loans comprising home equity lines of credit and second mortgage loans, automobile loans, boat loans, motorcycle loans, recreational vehicle loans, savings account loans, and unsecured loans; and commercial business loans. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Hoquiam, Washington.
Stock analysis
Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) currently trades at $45.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.25, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $46.97 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $45.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.48, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.69 (bear) to $57.81 (bull), the price of $45.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Timberland Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $110M in FY2025 versus $68.6M in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was $29.2M in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $359M · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 3.05 · EPS (TTM) $3.90 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 3%, TSBK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $34.69Fair Value $46.25Bull $57.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.77 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.25 versus a price of $45.10, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TSBK?
Our model-based fair value for Timberland Bancorp Inc is $46.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $45.10.
What is the quality score of TSBK?
Timberland Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.69, optimistic scenario $57.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Timberland Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.25, about +3% upside versus a price of $45.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $34.69, optimistic scenario $57.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Timberland Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $84.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Timberland Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Timberland Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Timberland Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSBK use?
Our models discount Timberland Bancorp Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Timberland Bancorp Inc that is -17.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Timberland Bancorp Inc grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies -17.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Timberland Bancorp Inc (-17.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.92 %: that much free cash flow Timberland Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Timberland Bancorp Inc it is $46.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $45.10. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Timberland Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TSBK trades below its calculated fair value: price $45.10, fair value $46.25, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($45.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.25). For Timberland Bancorp Inc the two are $1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Timberland Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Timberland Bancorp Inc at about $359M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $45.10; our models calculate a fair value of $46.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSBK?
Our models span a range for Timberland Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $34.69, base $46.25, optimistic $57.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $45.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSBK?
Timberland Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TSBK?
The PEG ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 2.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Timberland Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSBK from its 52-week high?
Timberland Bancorp Inc trades at $45.10, about 4% below its 52-week high of $47.00 and 48% above the low of $30.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Timberland Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Timberland Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $45.10, calculated fair value $46.25 (+3%), Quality Score 67/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSBK calculated?
We run Timberland Bancorp Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $46.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Timberland Bancorp Inc currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $45.10. Our model-based fair value is $46.25, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Timberland Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) come from?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc grew +12.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Timberland Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The market capitalisation of Timberland Bancorp Inc is $359M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 3.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc are $3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The dividend yield of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 2.4% (payout 27.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The net margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 26.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The operating margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Revenue at Timberland Bancorp Inc is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) hold?
Timberland Bancorp Inc holds more cash than debt, $228M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026