10X Genomics Inc (TXG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of 10X Genomics Inc stock $21.11, price $59.28, that is 64.4% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.14 – $190.92 · fair‑value band $13.98 – $30.59 · the $59.28 price screens above the $21.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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10x Genomics, Inc. develops and sells instruments, consumables, and software for analyzing biological systems in the United States, rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the rest of the Asia Pacific.
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The company offers Chromium platform, a single cell portfolio that enables analysis of individual biological components, as well as includes microfluidic chips and related consumables, Chromium X Series, and Chromium instruments; and QuantumScale single cell RNA and single cell methylation kits.
It also provides Visium platform, a spatial analysis platform that uses high density DNA arrays to encode the physical location of biological analytes within a sample.
This platform includes HD WT panel gene expression, and HD 3' gene expression assays, as well as the Visium CytAssist, an instrument designed to simplify and optimize the Visium solution workflow by facilitating the transfer of transcriptomic analytes from standard glass slides to Visium slides.
In addition, the company offers Xenium Analyzer instrument enables researchers to detect and preserve the cellular location of hundreds of RNA targets directly in a fresh frozen or FFPE tissue section without the need for conventional sequencing; and slides and reagents.
Further, it provides various software products comprising Cell Ranger, a scRNA-seq processing pipeline in scientific literature; Loupe Browser, which enables intuitive single-cell, spatial, and multiomic data visualization; and Xenium Explorer that enables intuitive in situ data visualization, which allows researchers to explore subcellular gene expression, spatial organization, and tissue-scale patterns.
The company serves various academic, government, biopharmaceutical, biotechnology, and other institutions.
The company was formerly known as 10X Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to 10x Genomics, Inc. in November 2014. 10x Genomics, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.
Stock analysis
10X Genomics Inc (TXG) currently trades at $59.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.11, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.84 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $59.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.66, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $13.98 (bear) to $30.59 (bull), the price of $59.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
10X Genomics Inc reported revenue of $643M in FY2025 versus $490M in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$43.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B Mid · P/S ratio 12.3 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5100 · Net margin −12.2% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −15.2% · Revenue (TTM) $617M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 356% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −64%, TXG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.98Fair Value $21.11Bull$30.59
Price $59.28 · Downside -64.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $14.8M and none bought.
SaleSerge SaxonovChief Executive Officer, Director10× since Nov 24, 2025: 171,969 shares, avg. $39.65$6.8MSep 22, 2026
SaleShehnaaz SulimanDirector3× since Jun 16, 2026: 13,653 shares, avg. $58.00$791,923Sep 22, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAdam TaichChief Financial Officer5× since Nov 24, 2025: 99,508 shares, avg. $48.63$4.8MSep 9, 2026
SaleJohn R StuelpnagelDirector2× since Aug 11, 2026: 40,000 shares, avg. $59.75$2.4MSep 3, 2026
SaleBenjamin J. HindsonOfficer, Director4× since Nov 24, 2025: 41,522 shares, avg. $35.09$1.5MAug 24, 2026
SaleSarah A. TeichmannDirector2× since Feb 25, 2026: 15,130 shares, avg. $38.29$579,387Aug 14, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.6% (2020) → −17.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.9% a year for the price and +3.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High gross margins and positive free cash flow stand out, yet ongoing net losses and the lack of a clear durable moat remain the central weaknesses.
Main risk: Illumina entering spatial and single-cell markets alongside lower-cost offerings from MGI and BGI in price-sensitive regions could draw customers away or force 10x Genomics to reduce prices on instruments and consumables.
Bull case: By expanding its KI-integrated analysis tools and securing further data-generation partnerships for virtual cell models, 10x Genomics could strengthen demand for its platforms and offset competitive pressure through higher-volume consumables sales.
Bear case: If Illumina and lower-cost rivals capture significant share in key markets while licensed patents face challenges, 10x Genomics could see sustained margin compression and slower adoption of its new Atera platform amid ongoing academic budget constraints.
10x Genomics has begun shipping its Atera platform for spatial biology, with booked orders already exceeding the full 2026 target of roughly 40 units amid broad research interest. This could expand recurring consumables revenue across oncology and other fields, yet the move risks slowing sales of prior instruments during a period of tight research budgets. Will the new capabilities generate enough fresh demand to outweigh the transition costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 320 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−12.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−15.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
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Is 10X Genomics Inc (TXG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.11 versus a price of $59.28, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXG?
Our model-based fair value for 10X Genomics Inc is $21.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.28.
What is the quality score of TXG?
10X Genomics Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $30.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the 10X Genomics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.11, about 64% lower versus a price of $59.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $30.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
10X Genomics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $617M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, 10X Genomics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXG use?
Our models discount 10X Genomics Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For 10X Genomics Inc that is +36.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has 10X Genomics Inc (TXG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at 10X Genomics Inc grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +36.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into 10X Genomics Inc (+36.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 %: that much free cash flow 10X Genomics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 10X Genomics Inc it is $21.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $59.28. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is 10X Genomics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TXG trades above its calculated fair value: price $59.28, fair value $21.11, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.11). For 10X Genomics Inc the two are $38.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 10X Genomics Inc worth?
The market values 10X Genomics Inc at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $59.28; our models calculate a fair value of $21.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXG?
Our models span a range for 10X Genomics Inc: cautious scenario $13.98, base $21.11, optimistic $30.59 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $59.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
Balance-sheet figures for 10X Genomics Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXG from its 52-week high?
10X Genomics Inc trades at $59.28, about 39% below its 52-week high of $97.74 and 356% above the low of $13.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 10X Genomics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 10X Genomics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $59.28, calculated fair value $21.11 (−64%), Quality Score 65/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXG calculated?
We run 10X Genomics Inc through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.11 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. 10X Genomics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $59.28. Our model-based fair value is $21.11, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 10X Genomics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.98 to $30.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of 10X Genomics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The market capitalisation of 10X Genomics Inc is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 10X Genomics Inc is 12.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
Earnings per share at 10X Genomics Inc are $−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The net margin of 10X Genomics Inc is −12.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 10X Genomics Inc is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 10X Genomics Inc is −16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
The operating margin of 10X Genomics Inc is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 10X Genomics Inc (TXG)?
Revenue at 10X Genomics Inc is growing −12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does 10X Genomics Inc (TXG) hold?
10X Genomics Inc holds more cash than debt, $316M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
