Vaxart, Inc (VXRT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $126M
Vaxart, Inc
VXRT · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price +3.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 155% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.8600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.8600 to $1.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3000 – $9.80 · fair‑value band $0.8600 – $1.77 · the $0.5693 price screens below the $1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vaxart, Inc (VXRT) currently trades at $0.5693, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 154.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vaxart, Inc generated revenue of $256M at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 87.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 53.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $44.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.8600 (bear case) to $1.77 (bull case); at $0.5693, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 155%, VXRT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($3.13) versus Asset-Based ($0.2400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its vector-adjuvant-antigen standardized technology proprietary oral vaccine platform.
Full company description
Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its vector-adjuvant-antigen standardized technology proprietary oral vaccine platform. The company's product pipeline includes norovirus vaccine, a bivalent oral tablet vaccine in Phase 2 clinical trial for the GI.1 and GII; COVID-19 Vaccine, which is in Phase 2b clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus; Seasonal Influenza vaccine, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial, to treat H1N1 Influenza; and human papillomavirus therapeutic vaccine, which is in preclinical stage, that targets HPV-16 and HPV-18 for cervical cancers and precancerous cervical lesions. The company also provides VAAST (Vector-Adjuvant-Antigen Standardized Technology) Platform, a unique modular vaccine platform. It has a license agreement with Altesa Biosciences, Inc. to develop and commercialize Vapendavir, a capsid-binding broad-spectrum antiviral. Vaxart, Inc. is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vaxart, Inc reported revenue of $237M in FY2025 versus $892K in FY2021, a compound +303.8%/yr. Reported net income was $16.3M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vaxart Investors Reject Say-on-Pay as CEO Rules Out Reverse Split for Now
- Vaxart Announces Results of Annual Meeting of Stockholders
- Vaxart anticipates early 2027 primary efficacy readout while aiming for Q2 sentinel data release
- Vaxart Q4 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 20/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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