Vaxart Inc (VXRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vaxart Inc $1.45, price $0.44, upside +231.8%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Vaxart Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3000 – $9.80 · fair‑value band $0.7700 – $1.77 · the $0.4370 price screens below the $1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Follow Vaxart in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Vaxart is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its vector-adjuvant-antigen standardized technology proprietary oral vaccine platform.
Show more
Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its vector-adjuvant-antigen standardized technology proprietary oral vaccine platform. The company's product pipeline includes norovirus vaccine, a bivalent oral tablet vaccine in Phase 2 clinical trial for the GI.1 and GII; COVID-19 Vaccine, which is in Phase 2b clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus; Seasonal Influenza vaccine, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial, to treat H1N1 Influenza; and human papillomavirus therapeutic vaccine, which is in preclinical stage, that targets HPV-16 and HPV-18 for cervical cancers and precancerous cervical lesions. The company also provides VAAST (Vector-Adjuvant-Antigen Standardized Technology) Platform, a unique modular vaccine platform. It has a license agreement with Altesa Biosciences, Inc. to develop and commercialize Vapendavir, a capsid-binding broad-spectrum antiviral. Vaxart, Inc. is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Vaxart Inc (VXRT) currently trades at $0.4370, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 69.9% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.13 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.4370 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2400, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.7700 (bear) to $1.77 (bull), the price of $0.4370 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vaxart Inc reported revenue of $237M in FY2025 versus $892K in FY2021, a compound +303.8%/yr. Reported net income was $16.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $126M · P/E ratio 2.7 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 53.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.7% · Operating margin 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 232%, VXRT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7700Fair Value $1.45Bull $1.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1210 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+726.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+125.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−745.7% (2020) → 7.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)53.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth87.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vaxart Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VXRT
Frequently asked questions
Is Vaxart Inc (VXRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.45 versus a price of $0.4370, about +232% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VXRT?
Our model-based fair value for Vaxart Inc is $1.45 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4370.
What is the quality score of VXRT?
Vaxart Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.45 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vaxart Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.45, about +232% upside versus a price of $0.4370 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Vaxart Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $256M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vaxart Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +125.8 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VXRT use?
Our models discount Vaxart Inc at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vaxart Inc that is -8.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vaxart Inc (VXRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vaxart Inc grew +125.8 % a year. The price currently implies -8.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vaxart Inc (VXRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vaxart Inc (-8.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.52 %: that much free cash flow Vaxart Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vaxart Inc it is $1.45 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $0.4370. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vaxart Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, VXRT trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4370, fair value $1.45, a gap of about +232% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VXRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4370); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.45). For Vaxart Inc the two are $1.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vaxart Inc worth?
The market values Vaxart Inc at about $126M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $0.4370; our models calculate a fair value of $1.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VXRT?
Our models span a range for Vaxart Inc: cautious scenario $0.7700, base $1.45, optimistic $1.77 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $0.4370). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VXRT?
Vaxart Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vaxart Inc (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 53.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VXRT from its 52-week high?
Vaxart Inc trades at $0.4370, about 45% below its 52-week high of $0.8000 and 32% above the low of $0.3300 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vaxart Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vaxart Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $0.4370, calculated fair value $1.45 (+232%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VXRT calculated?
We run Vaxart Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vaxart Inc currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.4370. Our model-based fair value is $1.45, about +232% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vaxart Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.7700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.7700 to $1.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vaxart Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The market capitalisation of Vaxart Inc is $126M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vaxart Inc is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Earnings per share at Vaxart Inc are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The net margin of Vaxart Inc is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vaxart Inc is 53.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vaxart Inc is −45.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
The operating margin of Vaxart Inc is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vaxart Inc (VXRT)?
Revenue at Vaxart Inc is growing +87.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,204%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Vaxart Inc (VXRT) hold?
Vaxart Inc holds more cash than debt, $44.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Vaxart Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Vaxart Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 28, 2026