Western Digital Corporation (WDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Western Digital Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $40.37 · Strongly overvalued (−91%)
✓Quality 71/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −10.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 55.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.10% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
✓Wide moat88/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.73 – $746.23 · fair‑value band $26.96 – $57.36 · the $441.36 price screens above the $40.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories.
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Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories. It sells its data storage devices and solutions through its computer manufacturers, sales personnel, dealers, distributors, and retailers. The company has a collaboration with Open Quantum Design for the development of quantum error correction technology and related systems to advance reliable quantum computing. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) currently trades at $441.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.37, implying the stock looks roughly 992.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $131.98 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $441.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.32, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $26.96 (bear) to $57.36 (bull), the price of $441.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Western Digital Corporation reported revenue of $9.5B in FY2025 versus $16.9B in FY2021, a compound −13.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $194B · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) $16.69 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 85.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −91%, WDC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.43 to $151.18). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $26.96Fair Value $40.37Bull $57.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($16.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → −6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+32.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Western Digital Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 225 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−91% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)86% · Top 25%
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)55% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)37% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.4× · Pricier than median
P/B36.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)16.49× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF151.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA49.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.49× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Western Digital Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WDC
Frequently asked questions
Is Western Digital Corporation (WDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.37 versus a price of $441.36, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WDC?
Our model-based fair value for Western Digital Corporation is $40.37 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $441.36.
What is the quality score of WDC?
Western Digital Corporation has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.37 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.96, optimistic scenario $57.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Western Digital Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.37, about −91% upside versus a price of $441.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.96, optimistic scenario $57.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Western Digital Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Western Digital Corporation pay a dividend?
Western Digital Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Western Digital Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +51.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.7 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WDC use?
Our models discount Western Digital Corporation at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Western Digital Corporation that is +51.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Western Digital Corporation (WDC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Western Digital Corporation grew -10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +51.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Western Digital Corporation (+51.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.81 %: that much free cash flow Western Digital Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Western Digital Corporation it is $40.37 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $441.36. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Western Digital Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, WDC trades above its calculated fair value: price $441.36, fair value $40.37, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($441.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.37). For Western Digital Corporation the two are $400.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Western Digital Corporation worth?
The market values Western Digital Corporation at about $194B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $441.36; our models calculate a fair value of $40.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WDC?
Our models span a range for Western Digital Corporation: cautious scenario $26.96, base $40.37, optimistic $57.36 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $441.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WDC?
Western Digital Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 36.6, P/S 16.5, EV/EBITDA 49.5.
What is the PEG ratio of WDC?
The PEG ratio of Western Digital Corporation is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Western Digital Corporation (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 85.9%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WDC from its 52-week high?
Western Digital Corporation trades at $441.36, about 27% below its 52-week high of $602.38 and 711% above the low of $54.45 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Western Digital Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Hygon Information Technology Co, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Western Digital Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $441.36, calculated fair value $40.37 (−91%), Quality Score 71/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WDC calculated?
We run Western Digital Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Western Digital Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $441.36. Our model-based fair value is $40.37, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Western Digital Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($26.96 to $57.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Western Digital Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The market capitalisation of Western Digital Corporation is $194B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Western Digital Corporation is 5.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Earnings per share at Western Digital Corporation are $16.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The dividend yield of Western Digital Corporation is 0.1% (payout 2.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The net margin of Western Digital Corporation is 19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Western Digital Corporation is 85.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Western Digital Corporation is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
The operating margin of Western Digital Corporation is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Revenue at Western Digital Corporation is growing +45.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Earnings per share at Western Digital Corporation are growing +483% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Western Digital Corporation (WDC) carry?
The net debt of Western Digital Corporation is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 17, 2026