Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $194B
Western Digital Corporation
WDC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −15.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($104.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($38.41 to $104.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.73 – $746.23 · fair‑value band $38.41 – $104.29 · the $451.52 price screens above the $62.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) currently trades at $451.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $62.94, implying the stock looks roughly 86.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Western Digital Corporation generated revenue of $11.8B at a net margin of 55.3%. Revenue grew 45.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 85.9%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.41 (bear case) to $104.29 (bull case); at $451.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -64% fair-value upside, at -86%, WDC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($97.51) versus Asset-Based ($10.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories.
Full company description
Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories. It sells its data storage devices and solutions through its computer manufacturers, sales personnel, dealers, distributors, and retailers. The company has a collaboration with Open Quantum Design for the development of quantum error correction technology and related systems to advance reliable quantum computing. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Western Digital Corporation reported revenue of $9.5B in FY2025 versus $16.9B in FY2021, a compound −13.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.
WDC screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Compal Electronics, Inc →
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 217 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compal Electronics, Inc CEIR | $0.0310 | $0.0276 | -11% |
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $434.97 | $163.87 | -62% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $168.56 | $43.74 | -74% |
| Wiwynn Corporation 6669 | 4,685 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -67% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥34.12 | ¥30.11 | -12% |
| Quanta Computer Inc 2382 | 373.50 TWD | 297.22 TWD | -20% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥587.60 | ¥60.86 | -90% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$23.16 | HK$3.07 | -87% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥106.13 | ¥28.88 | -73% |
| Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co 000977 | ¥89.52 | ¥31.81 | -64% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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