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Xilio Development Inc (XLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Xilio Development Inc $3.89, price $8.94, upside -56.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US98422T2096

XD Xilio Development Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Xilio Development Inc

XLO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.89 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +589.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -34.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$351.54 $7.00 Fair Value $3.89 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range $7.00 – $351.54 · fair‑value band $2.57 – $4.87 · the $8.94 price screens above the $3.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Xilio Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of masked immuno-oncology therapies.

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Xilio Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of masked immuno-oncology therapies. The company's pipeline includes XTX501, a bispecific PD-1 / masked IL-2, for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer; Efarindodekin alfa, an investigational, masked IL-12, that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for patients with advanced solid tumors; and Vilastobart, an investigational tumor-activated, Fc-enhanced, high affinity binding anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Xilio Development Inc (XLO) currently trades at $8.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.89, implying the stock looks roughly 129.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.57 (bear) to $4.87 (bull), the price of $8.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Xilio Development Inc reported revenue of $43.8M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$35.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $59.4M · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3200 · Net margin −80.1% · Return on equity −55.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −68.0% · Operating margin −18.7% · Revenue (TTM) $64.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −56%, XLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.57 Fair Value $3.89 Bull $4.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.68 $3.59 $5.36 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.68 $3.59 $5.36 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

XLO screens 130% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 650 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −57% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −14% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −34% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −19% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 131% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.68× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.93× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Xilio Development Inc · Fair Value
$3.89 −130%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xilio Development Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Xilio Development Inc (XLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.89 versus a price of $8.94, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XLO?
Our model-based fair value for Xilio Development Inc is $3.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.94.
What is the quality score of XLO?
Xilio Development Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.57, optimistic scenario $4.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xilio Development Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.89, about −56% upside versus a price of $8.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.57, optimistic scenario $4.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Xilio Development Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $64.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xilio Development Inc it is $3.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.94. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xilio Development Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.94, fair value $3.89, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.89). For Xilio Development Inc the two are $5.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xilio Development Inc worth?
The market values Xilio Development Inc at about $59.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.94; our models calculate a fair value of $3.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XLO?
Our models span a range for Xilio Development Inc: cautious scenario $2.57, base $3.89, optimistic $4.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xilio Development Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −55.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XLO from its 52-week high?
Xilio Development Inc trades at $8.94, about 26% below its 52-week high of $12.08 and 25% above the low of $7.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xilio Development Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xilio Development Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.94, calculated fair value $3.89 (−56%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XLO calculated?
We run Xilio Development Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Xilio Development Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.94. Our model-based fair value is $3.89, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xilio Development Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.57 to $4.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Xilio Development Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The market capitalisation of Xilio Development Inc is $59.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xilio Development Inc is 0.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Earnings per share at Xilio Development Inc are $−0.3200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The net margin of Xilio Development Inc is −80.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xilio Development Inc is −55.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xilio Development Inc is −68.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
The operating margin of Xilio Development Inc is −18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xilio Development Inc (XLO)?
Revenue at Xilio Development Inc is growing +131% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Xilio Development Inc (XLO) generate?
The free cash flow of Xilio Development Inc is −$5.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Xilio Development Inc (XLO) hold?
Xilio Development Inc holds more cash than debt, $131M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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