XTD.TO (XTD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of XTD.TO C$5.28, price C$9.03, upside -41.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.57 – C$11.49 · fair‑value band C$3.96 – C$6.60 · the C$9.03 price screens above the C$5.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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TDb Split Corp. is a closed-ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Quadravest Capital Management Inc. It invests in the public equity markets of Canada. The fund seeks to invest in the stocks of a company operating in the banking sector. It primarily invests in the common shares of Toronto-Dominion Bank.
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TDb Split Corp. is a closed-ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Quadravest Capital Management Inc. It invests in the public equity markets of Canada. The fund seeks to invest in the stocks of a company operating in the banking sector. It primarily invests in the common shares of Toronto-Dominion Bank. The fund benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the S&P TSX Financial Index. TDb Split Corp. was formed on May 24, 2007 and is domiciled in Canada.
Stock analysis
XTD.TO (XTD) currently trades at C$9.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$5.28, implying the stock looks roughly 71.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 14 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: C$3.96 (bear) to C$6.60 (bull), the price of C$9.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
XTD.TO reported revenue of C$2.8M in FY2025 versus C$18.5M in FY2021, a compound −37.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$23.7M in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$46.6M (≈ $32.9M) · P/E ratio 1.3 · P/S ratio 10.8 · EPS (TTM) C$7.12 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 90.1% · Return on equity 104% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −42%, XTD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$3.96Fair Value C$5.28Bull C$6.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$5.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 958%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)104% · Top 25%
Return on assets31% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)90% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)98% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth144% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.99× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.77× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XTD.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XTD
Frequently asked questions
Is XTD.TO (XTD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$5.28 versus a price of C$9.03, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XTD?
Our model-based fair value for XTD.TO is C$5.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$9.03.
What is the quality score of XTD?
XTD.TO has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XTD.TO (XTD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$5.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$3.96, optimistic scenario C$6.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XTD.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$5.28, about −42% upside versus a price of C$9.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$3.96, optimistic scenario C$6.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does XTD.TO pay a dividend?
XTD.TO currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XTD.TO (XTD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XTD.TO it is C$5.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$9.03. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XTD.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XTD trades above its calculated fair value: price C$9.03, fair value C$5.28, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XTD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$9.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$5.28). For XTD.TO the two are C$3.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XTD.TO worth?
The market values XTD.TO at about C$46.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$9.03; our models calculate a fair value of C$5.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XTD?
Our models span a range for XTD.TO: cautious scenario C$3.96, base C$5.28, optimistic C$6.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$9.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XTD?
XTD.TO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$5.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of XTD.TO (XTD)?
Balance-sheet figures for XTD.TO (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 103.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XTD from its 52-week high?
XTD.TO trades at C$9.03, about 21% below its 52-week high of C$11.49 and 98% above the low of C$4.57 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$5.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XTD.TO?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XTD.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$9.03, calculated fair value C$5.28 (−42%), Quality Score 59/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XTD calculated?
We run XTD.TO through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$5.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. XTD.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$9.03. Our model-based fair value is C$5.28, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XTD.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$6.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of XTD.TO (XTD) come from?
Earnings per share at XTD.TO grew −0.2 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −5.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of XTD.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The market capitalisation of XTD.TO is C$46.6M (≈ $32.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XTD.TO is 10.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XTD.TO (XTD)?
Earnings per share at XTD.TO are C$7.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The dividend yield of XTD.TO is 5.8% (payout 7.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The net margin of XTD.TO is 90.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XTD.TO is 104% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XTD.TO (XTD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XTD.TO is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XTD.TO (XTD)?
The operating margin of XTD.TO is 97.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XTD.TO (XTD)?
Revenue at XTD.TO is growing +144% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XTD.TO (XTD)?
Earnings per share at XTD.TO are growing +146% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XTD.TO (XTD) generate?
The free cash flow of XTD.TO is −C$1.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XTD.TO (XTD) carry?
The net debt of XTD.TO is C$45.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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