Exzeo Group (XZO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.3B
Exzeo Group
XZO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −11.4% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (9 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range $12.55 – $24.25 · fair‑value band $8.87 – $14.79 · the $15.50 price screens above the $11.83 fair value. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Exzeo Group (XZO) currently trades at $15.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.83, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Exzeo Group generated revenue of $227M at a net margin of 37.6%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 58.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $298M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.87 (bear case) to $14.79 (bull case); at $15.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -24%, XZO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($7.81) versus Asset-Based ($1.87). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and underwriting, policy management, claims processing management, data reporting, and financial …
Full company description
Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and underwriting, policy management, claims processing management, data reporting, and financial reporting. It serves property and casualty insurance industry. The company was formerly known as TypTap Insurance Group, Inc. Exzeo Group, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tampa, Florida. Exzeo Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of HCI Group, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exzeo Group reported revenue of $217M in FY2025 versus $51.7M in FY2020, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was $82.7M in FY2025.
XZO screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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