Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Exzeo Group, Inc. $7.73, price $15.31, upside -49.5%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range $12.55 – $24.25 · fair‑value band $5.52 – $30.92 · the $15.31 price screens above the $7.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents.
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Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and underwriting, policy management, claims processing management, data reporting, and financial reporting. It serves property and casualty insurance industry. The company was formerly known as TypTap Insurance Group, Inc. Exzeo Group, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tampa, Florida. Exzeo Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of HCI Group, Inc.
Stock analysis
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) currently trades at $15.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.73, implying the stock looks roughly 98.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $7.88 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $15.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.89, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.52 (bear) to $30.92 (bull), the price of $15.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Exzeo Group, Inc. reported revenue of $217M in FY2025 versus $51.7M in FY2020, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was $82.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 5.67 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Net margin 38.1% · Return on equity 50.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0% · Operating margin 51.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −50%, XZO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.52Fair Value $7.73Bull $30.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7535 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+62.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.2%
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+99.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+99.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 49%
2025 sits 155% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and +10.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Return on assets27% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)52% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.9× · Pricier than median
P/B5.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.55× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF15.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)35· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exzeo Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XZO
Frequently asked questions
Is Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.73 versus a price of $15.31, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XZO?
Our model-based fair value for Exzeo Group, Inc. is $7.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.31.
What is the quality score of XZO?
Exzeo Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $30.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exzeo Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.73, about −50% upside versus a price of $15.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $30.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Exzeo Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $230M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exzeo Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XZO use?
Our models discount Exzeo Group, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exzeo Group, Inc. that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exzeo Group, Inc. grew +33.2 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exzeo Group, Inc. (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.00 %: that much free cash flow Exzeo Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exzeo Group, Inc. it is $7.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.31. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exzeo Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XZO trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.31, fair value $7.73, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XZO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.73). For Exzeo Group, Inc. the two are $7.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exzeo Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Exzeo Group, Inc. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.31; our models calculate a fair value of $7.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XZO?
Our models span a range for Exzeo Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $5.52, base $7.73, optimistic $30.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XZO?
Exzeo Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exzeo Group, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 50.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Exzeo Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exzeo Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.31, calculated fair value $7.73 (−50%), Quality Score 80/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XZO calculated?
We run Exzeo Group, Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Exzeo Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.31. Our model-based fair value is $7.73, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exzeo Group, Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide ($5.52 to $30.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Exzeo Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The market capitalisation of Exzeo Group, Inc. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exzeo Group, Inc. is 5.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Earnings per share at Exzeo Group, Inc. are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The net margin of Exzeo Group, Inc. is 38.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exzeo Group, Inc. is 50.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exzeo Group, Inc. is 17.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
The operating margin of Exzeo Group, Inc. is 51.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Revenue at Exzeo Group, Inc. is growing +6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +68.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)?
Earnings per share at Exzeo Group, Inc. are growing −1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) hold?
Exzeo Group, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $298M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026