Yamazaki Baking Co (YMZBY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.5B

A solid business, screening 44% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range ($177.68 to $348.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $94.64 – $209.25 · fair‑value band $177.68 – $348.67 · the $180.00 price screens below the $259.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Yamazaki Baking Co (YMZBY) currently trades at $180.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $259.05, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yamazaki Baking Co generated revenue of $1.3T at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $60.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $177.68 (bear case) to $348.67 (bull case); at $180.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 44%, YMZBY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($278.94) versus Asset-Based ($95.52). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. engages in the food business in Japan. The company operates through Food Business, Distribution Business, and Other Business segments.

Full company description

Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. engages in the food business in Japan. The company operates through Food Business, Distribution Business, and Other Business segments. The company offers loaf bread, sweet buns, donuts, hard rolls, and pastries; skewered rice dumplings, sweet bean filled rice cakes, pancake style sweets, steamed cakes, castella, and yokan; swiss rolls, cream puffs, snack cakes and pound cakes; and processed bread and noodles, and prepared rice. It also provides strawberry and blueberry jams, marmalade, jelly and sweet bean, ready-to-eat curry in retort pouches, and other kinds of preserves; biscuits, cookies, chocolates, and rice-derived confectionery; and coffee and juice under the Yamazaki brand, as well as fillings of various confectionary products; and cream, curry fillings, stuffing for Chinese filled buns, croquettes, meat patty, and mayonnaise. In addition, the company is involved in logistics business; designing equipment for food manufacturing; supervision; construction contracting; office work; non-life insurance agency; cleaning of food manufacturing machinery; manufacturing and sale of cleaning agents; operation of instore baking and the convenience store business. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yamazaki Baking Co reported revenue of $1.4T in FY2025 versus $1.1T in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $42.9B in FY2025, compounding +42.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 653 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.