Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Zumtobel Group AG €6.56, price €4.10, upside +60.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.25 – €8.14 · fair‑value band €4.92 – €8.95 · the €4.10 price screens below the €6.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Zumtobel Group AG operates in the lighting industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Lighting and Components. It provides various products and services, including light management systems, components, and luminaires, as well as professional solutions for indoor and outdoor lighting applications.
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Zumtobel Group AG operates in the lighting industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Lighting and Components. It provides various products and services, including light management systems, components, and luminaires, as well as professional solutions for indoor and outdoor lighting applications. The company also offers hardware and software for lighting systems, such as LED light sources, LED drivers, and sensors, as well as lighting systems management; and light contracting, and design, as well as project management for turnkey lighting solutions. It provides its products under the Zumtobel, Thorn, and Tridonic brands. The company was formerly known as Zumtobel AG and changed its name to Zumtobel Group AG in September 2014. Zumtobel Group AG was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Dornbirn, Austria.
Stock analysis
Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) currently trades at €4.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.56, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €8.43 per share, and 21 of the 22 models we run sit above the €4.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.05, and 1 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.92 (bear) to €8.95 (bull), the price of €4.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Zumtobel Group AG reported revenue of €1.1B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €15.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €175M · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) €0.2700 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 60%, ZAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €4.92Fair Value €6.56Bull €8.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2700 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 552 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+62% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zumtobel Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZAG
Frequently asked questions
Is Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.56 versus a price of €4.10, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZAG?
Our model-based fair value for Zumtobel Group AG is €6.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.10.
What is the quality score of ZAG?
Zumtobel Group AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.92, optimistic scenario €8.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zumtobel Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.56, about +60% upside versus a price of €4.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.92, optimistic scenario €8.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Zumtobel Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zumtobel Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZAG use?
Our models discount Zumtobel Group AG at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zumtobel Group AG that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zumtobel Group AG grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zumtobel Group AG (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.38 %: that much free cash flow Zumtobel Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zumtobel Group AG it is €6.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €4.10. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zumtobel Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ZAG trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.10, fair value €6.56, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.56). For Zumtobel Group AG the two are €2.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zumtobel Group AG worth?
The market values Zumtobel Group AG at about €175M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €4.10; our models calculate a fair value of €6.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZAG?
Our models span a range for Zumtobel Group AG: cautious scenario €4.92, base €6.56, optimistic €8.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €4.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZAG?
Zumtobel Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.5, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ZAG?
The PEG ratio of Zumtobel Group AG is 7.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zumtobel Group AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZAG from its 52-week high?
Zumtobel Group AG trades at €4.10, about 7% below its 52-week high of €4.40 and 26% above the low of €3.25 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zumtobel Group AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Vertiv Holdings, Prysmian S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zumtobel Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €4.10, calculated fair value €6.56 (+60%), Quality Score 55/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZAG calculated?
We run Zumtobel Group AG through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Zumtobel Group AG currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €4.10. Our model-based fair value is €6.56, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zumtobel Group AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€4.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€4.92 to €8.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Zumtobel Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The market capitalisation of Zumtobel Group AG is €175M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zumtobel Group AG is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Earnings per share at Zumtobel Group AG are €0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The net margin of Zumtobel Group AG is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zumtobel Group AG is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zumtobel Group AG is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
The operating margin of Zumtobel Group AG is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Revenue at Zumtobel Group AG is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG)?
Earnings per share at Zumtobel Group AG are growing −29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zumtobel Group AG (ZAG) carry?
The net debt of Zumtobel Group AG is €56.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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