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Zumtobel Group (ZAG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · AT · Market cap €169M

ZG Zumtobel Group ZAG · VI
Price€3.86
Fair Value€6.66
Upside+72.5%
Quality55/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range €5.01 – €7.95 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

A solid business, screening 73% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€8.14 €3.25 Fair Value €6.66 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.25 – €8.14 · fair‑value band €5.01 – €7.95 · the €3.86 price screens below the €6.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Zumtobel Group (ZAG) currently trades at €3.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.66, implying the stock looks roughly 72.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zumtobel Group generated revenue of €1.0B at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. Net debt stands at €56.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.01 (bear case) to €7.95 (bull case); at €3.86, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 73%, ZAG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €2.15 €2.91 €4.03 80
Residual Income €6.63 €6.26 €4.79 76
Rev-Margin DCF €3.87 €6.54 €9.77 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €2.07 €2.88 €4.17 38
Owner Earnings €1.55 €2.21 €3.28 31
5Y Revenue Exit €3.87 €6.45 €10.21 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €9.43 €16.06 €24.84 41
5Y P/E Exit €3.05 €5.04 €7.41 38
10Y Revenue Exit €2.85 €4.47 €6.22 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €5.88 €9.54 €13.54 37
10Y P/E Exit €2.56 €3.72 €4.82 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.49 €3.05 €3.43 54
EPV €3.99 €4.59 €5.08 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.77 €7.70 €9.62 63
P/S Multiple €4.67 €6.23 €7.79 58
P/B Multiple €4.67 €6.23 €7.79 55
EV/EBIT €8.91 €12.22 €15.53 53
EV/EBITDA €18.93 €25.59 €32.24 54
EV/Revenue €6.07 €9.10 €12.14 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €5.01 €6.71 €10.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €2.15 €2.91 €4.03 80
Rev-Margin DCF €3.87 €6.54 €9.77 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €6.63 €6.26 €4.79 76
ROIC Compounder €3.99 €4.59 €5.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €4.08 €5.82 €7.57 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€7.70) versus Growth DCF (€2.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €1.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.2%
Net margin 1.1%
Return on equity 2.7%
Free cash flow €18.1M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.2
More key figures
Operating margin -0.5%
EPS (TTM) €0.2700
Dividend yield 4.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -29.4%
Net debt €56.0M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zumtobel Group AG operates in the lighting industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Lighting and Components. It provides various products and services, including light management systems, components, and luminaires, as well as professional solutions for indoor and outdoor lighting applications.

Full company description

Zumtobel Group AG operates in the lighting industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Lighting and Components. It provides various products and services, including light management systems, components, and luminaires, as well as professional solutions for indoor and outdoor lighting applications. The company also offers hardware and software for lighting systems, such as LED light sources, LED drivers, and sensors, as well as lighting systems management; and light contracting, and design, as well as project management for turnkey lighting solutions. It provides its products under the Zumtobel, Thorn, and Tridonic brands. The company was formerly known as Zumtobel AG and changed its name to Zumtobel Group AG in September 2014. Zumtobel Group AG was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Dornbirn, Austria.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zumtobel Group reported revenue of €1.1B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was €15.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€1.1B
Latest YoY
−2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.3%
Revenue +1.2%/yr
FY21 €1.0B
FY22 €1.1B
FY23 €1.2B
FY24 €1.1B
FY25 €1.1B
Net income −23.3%/yr
FY21 €44.9M
FY22 €45.6M
FY23 €59.5M
FY24 €24.6M
FY25 €15.5M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zumtobel Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZAG

Peer Group

Electrical Equipment & Parts · 526 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +73% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.19× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.46× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 10.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 7.54× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 57
PAST 11 · sector 26
HEALTH 90 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 18

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

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HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 823,000 KRW 371,133 KRW -55%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Zumtobel Group (ZAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.66 versus a price of €3.86, about +73% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZAG?
Our model-based fair value for Zumtobel Group is €6.66 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €3.86.
What is the quality score of ZAG?
Zumtobel Group has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zumtobel Group (ZAG)?
Zumtobel Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.0B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ZAG?
The net profit margin of Zumtobel Group is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zumtobel Group pay a dividend?
Zumtobel Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.29% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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