AIA Group Ltd (1299) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AIA Group Ltd stock HK$41.63, price HK$78.85, that is 47.2% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$42.50 – HK$88.78 · fair‑value band HK$32.53 – HK$61.89 · the HK$78.85 price screens above the HK$41.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients.
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It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products.
It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India.
AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
AIA Group Ltd (1299) currently trades at HK$78.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$41.63, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$42.15 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$78.85 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$20.17, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$32.53 (bear) to HK$61.89 (bull), the price of HK$78.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AIA Group Ltd reported revenue of $32.6B in FY2025 versus $46.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$823B (≈ $105B) Large · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 2.33 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 35.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −47%, 1299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$32.53Fair Value HK$41.63BullHK$61.89
Price HK$78.85 · Downside -47.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 23%
2025 sits 81% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
AI conclusion: Stable margins and reaffirmed profit targets form the main strength while thin evidence and absent moat signals remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Stricter Chinese tax enforcement on returns from Hong Kong insurance policies could dampen demand from mainland customers and reduce new business in AIA's Hong Kong operations.
Bull case: AIA could expand its presence in other Asian markets or develop more localised products in mainland China to compensate for any slowdown in Hong Kong sales to mainland visitors.
Bear case: Persistent tax-related deterrence might materially slow new business growth in Hong Kong, AIA's important market for mainland-sourced sales.
AIA reported a 5% drop in third-quarter value of new business from high prior-year comparisons in Hong Kong and mainland China, yet its margin rose 5.3 points to 63.5% with September growth rebounding over 25%. The company also reaffirmed it expects to exceed its profit growth target through 2026. Will the margin gains and underlying demand for protection products sustain momentum against regulatory pressures on cross-border sales, or will volumes stay constrained?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−47.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)35.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AIA Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1299
Frequently asked questions
Is AIA Group Ltd (1299) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$41.63 versus a price of HK$78.85, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1299?
Our model-based fair value for AIA Group Ltd is HK$41.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$78.85.
What is the quality score of 1299?
AIA Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$41.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$32.53, optimistic scenario HK$61.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AIA Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$41.63, about 47% lower versus a price of HK$78.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$32.53, optimistic scenario HK$61.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
AIA Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does AIA Group Ltd pay a dividend?
AIA Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIA Group Ltd it is HK$41.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of HK$78.85. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AIA Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 1299 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$78.85, fair value HK$41.63, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1299?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$78.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$41.63). For AIA Group Ltd the two are HK$37.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AIA Group Ltd worth?
The market values AIA Group Ltd at about HK$823B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is HK$78.85; our models calculate a fair value of HK$41.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1299?
Our models span a range for AIA Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$32.53, base HK$41.63, optimistic HK$61.89 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price HK$78.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1299?
AIA Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$41.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1299?
The PEG ratio of AIA Group Ltd is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Balance-sheet figures for AIA Group Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 19.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1299 from its 52-week high?
AIA Group Ltd trades at HK$78.85, about 11% below its 52-week high of HK$88.78 and 15% above the low of HK$68.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$41.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AIA Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, Manulife Financial Corporation, MetLife, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AIA Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price HK$78.85, calculated fair value HK$41.63 (−47%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1299 calculated?
We run AIA Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$41.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. AIA Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$78.85. Our model-based fair value is HK$41.63, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AIA Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$61.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$32.53 to HK$61.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AIA Group Ltd (1299) come from?
Earnings per share at AIA Group Ltd grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +13.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AIA Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The market capitalisation of AIA Group Ltd is HK$823B (≈ $105B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AIA Group Ltd is 2.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The dividend yield of AIA Group Ltd is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The net margin of AIA Group Ltd is 19.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AIA Group Ltd is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIA Group Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
The operating margin of AIA Group Ltd is 35.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Revenue at AIA Group Ltd is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AIA Group Ltd (1299)?
Earnings per share at AIA Group Ltd are growing +72.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AIA Group Ltd (1299) generate?
The free cash flow of AIA Group Ltd is $5.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AIA Group Ltd (1299) carry?
The net debt of AIA Group Ltd is $11.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026