CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A stock ¥4.69, price ¥9.39, that is 50.1% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
43‑month range ¥6.16 – ¥16.87 · fair‑value band ¥3.12 – ¥5.83 · the ¥9.39 price screens above the ¥4.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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CITIC Metal Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, trades in metals and mineral products in China and internationally.
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The company offers ferrous and non-ferrous metals; iron ore; steel plates, including hot and cold rolled steel sheets, zinc plated steel sheets, and moderately thick steel plates; steel strips and tubular steel products; cooper products, such as copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, blister copper, and copper cathodes; niobium; aluminum products comprising electrolytic aluminum, aluminum oxide, bauxite, and aluminum bars; and special minerals, which include chrome ores, manganese ores, ferrochromium, and silicomanganese.
It also provides dry bulk shipping services; produces titanium alloys, low-temperature superconducting materials, and high-temperature alloys; imports and trades in platinum, gold, and other precious metals; and invests in mining companies that explore copper, zinc, and nickel.
In addition, the company engages in investment management; transshipment business; enterprise and investment management consulting services; logistics and consulting services; dry bulk shipping leasing business; and import and export business; and enterprise trade. It exports its products.
The company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Beijing, China. CITIC Metal Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Metal Group Ltd.
Stock analysis
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) currently trades at ¥9.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.69, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥8.28 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥9.39 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥2.90, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥3.12 (bear) to ¥5.83 (bull), the price of ¥9.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 142B CNY in FY2025 versus 113B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 46.0B CNY (≈ $6.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8000 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −50%, 601061 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥3.12Fair Value ¥4.69Bull¥5.83
Price ¥9.39 · Downside -50.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4974 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +67.3% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: Stakes in mining projects support recent profit growth, yet the low-margin commodity trading business shows weak pricing power and thin margins with limited durable advantages.
Main risk: Community protests and blockades at the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, where CITIC Metal holds a stake, could repeatedly interrupt production and shipments, reducing metal supply available for trading and pressuring margins.
Bull case: By strengthening community engagement and local partnerships at its mining stakes, CITIC Metal could secure more stable output from assets like Las Bambas and expand its trading volumes in a reliable supply environment.
Bear case: Persistent social conflicts and political instability around key projects such as Las Bambas might lead to prolonged shutdowns, limiting metal availability for trading and eroding the company's position in commodity cycles.
CITIC Metal trades ferrous and non-ferrous metals while holding stakes in mining projects such as Ivanhoe Mines and Las Bambas. Recent half-year results showed strong profit growth yet the business remains tied to commodity cycles and external demand. Our models view the shares as overvalued, so does the trading margin expansion from its investments outweigh the risks from price swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601061
Frequently asked questions
Is CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.69 versus a price of ¥9.39, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601061?
Our model-based fair value for CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is ¥4.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.39.
What is the quality score of 601061?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.12, optimistic scenario ¥5.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.69, about 50% lower versus a price of ¥9.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.12, optimistic scenario ¥5.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 165B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) and when is the ex-dividend date?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A pays a dividend of ¥0.22 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 27.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.14 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +70.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601061 use?
Our models discount CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A that is +70.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +70.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (+70.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A it is ¥4.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥9.39. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 601061 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.39, fair value ¥4.69, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601061?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.69). For CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥4.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A at about 46.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601061?
Our models span a range for CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥3.12, base ¥4.69, optimistic ¥5.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥9.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601061?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥4.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 22.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Balance-sheet figures for CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 16.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601061 from its 52-week high?
CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥9.39, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥16.87 and 2% above the low of ¥9.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥9.39, calculated fair value ¥4.69 (−50%), Quality Score 43/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601061 calculated?
We run CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥4.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥9.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.69, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥3.12 to ¥5.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The market capitalisation of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 46.0B CNY (≈ $6.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A are ¥0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The dividend yield of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 2.3% (payout 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The net margin of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
The operating margin of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Revenue at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is growing +23.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A are growing +45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A (601061) carry?
The net debt of CITIC Metal Co. Ltd. A is 2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026