Aegon NV (AGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aegon NV stock €5.76, price €7.63, that is 24.5% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.91 – €8.29 · fair‑value band €4.32 – €7.20 · the €7.63 price screens above the €5.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Aegon Ltd. Engages in the provision of insurance, pensions, retirement, and asset management services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Distribution, Protection Solutions, and Savings & Investments.
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The company offers retirement plans, mutual funds, and stable value solutions; and annuities, individual life, life and health, and individual health. The company provides its products under the Transamerica and World Financial Group brands.
Aegon Ltd. was founded in 1844 and is headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Aegon NV (AGN) currently trades at €7.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.76, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €7.26 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €7.63 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €2.88, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.32 (bear) to €7.20 (bull), the price of €7.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Aegon NV reported revenue of €33.4B in FY2025 versus €46.1B in FY2021, a compound −7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €977M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €12.0B Large · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) €0.5800 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −25%, AGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€4.32Fair Value €5.76Bull€7.20
Price €7.63 · Downside -24.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1359 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.4% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Focused on Transamerica in the large US market with asset management retained, the group gains scale alignment yet shows thin margins and no clear durable advantages amid limited public signals.
Main risk: Stricter US fiduciary standards or further regulatory actions against Transamerica subsidiaries could raise compliance costs and restrict rollover or advisory activities in the core retirement business.
Bull case: By expanding its agent network and integrating AI tools for faster service Transamerica could strengthen its position in underserved US segments and offset competitive or regulatory pressures.
Bear case: If regulatory scrutiny intensifies or rivals gain share through digital models Transamerica might face higher costs, restricted distribution channels and slower growth in its dominant US life and retirement operations.
Aegon is completing its shift to a US-focused life and retirement insurer through redomiciliation and the sale of its UK operations. This leaves the group centered on its Transamerica business in a large domestic market while retaining asset management capabilities. Will the benefits of US scale and alignment outweigh the loss of geographic diversification?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−24.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.1% · Below median
Return on assets0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aegon NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Aegon NV (AGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.76 versus a price of €7.63, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGN?
Our model-based fair value for Aegon NV is €5.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.63.
What is the quality score of AGN?
Aegon NV has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aegon NV (AGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.32, optimistic scenario €7.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aegon NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.76, about 25% lower versus a price of €7.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €4.32, optimistic scenario €7.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aegon NV (AGN)?
Aegon NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Aegon NV pay a dividend?
Aegon NV currently shows a dividend yield of 5.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aegon NV (AGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aegon NV would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGN use?
Our models discount Aegon NV at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aegon NV that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aegon NV (AGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aegon NV grew -5.5 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aegon NV (AGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aegon NV (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.39 %: that much free cash flow Aegon NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aegon NV (AGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aegon NV it is €5.76 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €7.63. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aegon NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AGN trades above its calculated fair value: price €7.63, fair value €5.76, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.76). For Aegon NV the two are €1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aegon NV worth?
The market values Aegon NV at about €12.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €7.63; our models calculate a fair value of €5.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGN?
Our models span a range for Aegon NV: cautious scenario €4.32, base €5.76, optimistic €7.20 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €7.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGN?
Aegon NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 10.0. Other multiples: PEG 14.3, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 24.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AGN?
The PEG ratio of Aegon NV is 14.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aegon NV (AGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aegon NV (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGN from its 52-week high?
Aegon NV trades at €7.63, about 8% below its 52-week high of €8.29 and 32% above the low of €5.79 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aegon NV?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aegon NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €7.63, calculated fair value €5.76 (−25%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGN calculated?
We run Aegon NV through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aegon NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €7.63. Our model-based fair value is €5.76, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aegon NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aegon NV (AGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV grew +3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.8 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aegon NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The market capitalisation of Aegon NV is €12.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aegon NV is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aegon NV (AGN)?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV are €0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The dividend yield of Aegon NV is 5.5% (payout 72.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The net margin of Aegon NV is 8.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aegon NV is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aegon NV (AGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aegon NV is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aegon NV (AGN)?
The operating margin of Aegon NV is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aegon NV (AGN)?
Revenue at Aegon NV is growing −8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aegon NV (AGN)?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV are growing +7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aegon NV (AGN) carry?
The net debt of Aegon NV is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026