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Aegon Ltd (AGN) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · NL · Market cap €11.7B

AL Aegon Ltd AGN · AS
Price€8.26
Fair Value€8.64
Upside+4.6%
Quality65/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.04% dividend yield
Trails peers (2/15)
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range €6.48 – €10.80 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €8.44 to €8.64 (+2.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +7.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€8.26 €2.57 Fair Value €8.64 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.57 – €8.26 · fair‑value band €6.48 – €10.80 · the €8.26 price screens below the €8.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Aegon Ltd (AGN) currently trades at €8.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.64, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Aegon Ltd generated revenue of €12.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue declined 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at €2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €6.48 (bear case) to €10.80 (bull case); at €8.26, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 5%, AGN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €7.50 €13.32 €23.20 80
Residual Income €4.88 €5.84 €11.07 76
Rev-Margin DCF €6.61 €11.59 €18.03 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €7.56 €13.91 €24.97 38
Owner Earnings €6.52 €12.03 €21.62 31
5Y Revenue Exit €6.61 €11.71 €18.62 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €5.91 €10.27 €15.68 41
5Y P/E Exit €8.51 €15.64 €23.81 38
10Y Revenue Exit €6.64 €11.60 €19.19 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €6.40 €10.55 €16.72 37
10Y P/E Exit €8.13 €14.49 €23.54 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.52 €21.06 €28.94 54
Lynch FV €5.56 €7.95 €10.33 50
PEG = 1.0 €5.56 €7.95 €10.33 46
EPV €5.86 €6.87 €7.76 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €3.72 €7.74 €12.28 70
DDM Multi-Stage €3.72 €6.52 €8.12 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €9.97 €13.29 €16.61 63
P/S Multiple €8.47 €11.30 €14.12 58
P/B Multiple €8.47 €11.30 €14.12 55
EV/EBIT €9.36 €12.56 €15.76 53
EV/EBITDA €5.59 €7.53 €9.47 54
EV/Revenue €6.23 €9.00 €11.78 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.56 €3.43 €5.12 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €7.50 €13.32 €23.20 80
Rev-Margin DCF €6.61 €11.59 €18.03 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €4.88 €5.84 €11.07 76
ROIC Compounder €6.22 €8.58 €11.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €8.62 €12.31 €16.00 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€12.31) versus Asset-Based (€3.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €12.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -13.7%
Net margin 8.0%
Return on equity 10.4%
Free cash flow €887M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.2
More key figures
Operating margin 0.3%
EPS (TTM) €0.6000
Dividend yield 5.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -46.7%
Net debt €2.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aegon Ltd. Engages in the provision of insurance, pensions, retirement, and asset management services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Distribution, Protection Solutions, and Savings & Investments.

Full company description

Aegon Ltd. Engages in the provision of insurance, pensions, retirement, and asset management services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Distribution, Protection Solutions, and Savings & Investments. The company offers retirement plans, mutual funds, and stable value solutions; and annuities, individual life, life and health, and individual health. The company provides its products under the Transamerica and World Financial Group brands. Aegon Ltd. was founded in 1844 and is headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aegon Ltd reported revenue of €33.4B in FY2025 versus €46.1B in FY2021, a compound −7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €977M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€33.4B
Latest YoY
+71.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−14.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y)
+5.5%
Revenue −7.8%/yr
FY21 €46.1B
FY22 €53.8B
FY23 €29.5B
FY24 €19.5B
FY25 €33.4B
Net income −16.2%/yr
FY21 €2.0B
FY22 −€570M
FY23 −€179M
FY24 €688M
FY25 €977M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aegon Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGN

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside +5% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.47× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 15.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 24.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 14.28× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 43
FUTURE 0 · sector 31
PAST 42 · sector 49
HEALTH 77 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB 8,562 MXN 10,844 MXN +27%
Allianz SE ALV €421.00 €369.31 -12%
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 624.40 CHF 619.80 -1%
AXA SA AXAN 888.28 MXN 1,249 MXN +41%
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €42.90 €12.18 -72%
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF C$114.20 C$87.83 -23%
BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 R$40.71 R$60.39 +48%
Tryg A/S TRYG kr 154.00 kr 116.45 -24%
PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA 20,625 IDR 4,176 IDR -80%
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 R$21.77 R$18.60 -15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aegon Ltd (AGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.64 versus a price of €8.26, about +5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AGN?
Our model-based fair value for Aegon Ltd is €8.64 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €8.26.
What is the quality score of AGN?
Aegon Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Aegon Ltd (AGN)?
Aegon Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AGN?
The net profit margin of Aegon Ltd is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Aegon Ltd pay a dividend?
Aegon Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.48% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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