Bank of Montreal (BMO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bank of Montreal stock $126, price $171, that is 26.2% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $66.14 – $185.81 · fair‑value band $109.84 – $185.51 · the $171.13 price screens above the $126.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Bank of Montreal provides diversified financial services primarily in North America. It operates through Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Banking; Wealth Management; and Capital Markets segments.
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The company offers checking accounts, savings, money markets and certificates of deposits, debit cards, overdrafts, digital banking, credit cards, loans, mortgages, investment and retirement options, and other banking services; and commercial banking products and services comprise various of financing options and treasury and payment solutions, as well as risk management products.
It also offers investing, banking, and wealth management advisory; digital investing services; financial solutions for individuals, families, and businesses; offers investment management services to institutional, retail, and high net worth investors; and diversified insurance, and wealth and pension de-risking solutions.
In addition, the company provides individual life, critical illness and annuity products, as well as segregated funds, and group creditor and travel insurance to customers; debt and equity capital-raising, loan origination and syndication, balance sheet management, treasury management, mergers and acquisitions advice, restructurings and recapitalizations, trade finance, and risk mitigation services, as well as a range of banking and other operating services.
Further, the company offers research and access to financial markets for institutional, corporate and retail clients through an integrated suite of sales and trading solutions related to debt, foreign exchange, interest rates, credit, equities, securitization, and commodities; provides new product development and origination services, as well as risk management and advisory services for hedging strategies, including in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and commodities prices; and funding and liquidity management services.
Bank of Montreal was founded in 1817 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Bank of Montreal (BMO) currently trades at $171.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $126.32, 26.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $133.93 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $171.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $64.10, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $109.84 (bear) to $185.51 (bull), the price of $171.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bank of Montreal reported revenue of $78.1B in FY2025 versus $32.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.5%/yr. Reported net income was $8.7B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $116B Large · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) $8.85 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −26%, BMO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$109.84Fair Value $126.32Bull$185.51
Price $171.13 · Downside -26.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs 6.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−23.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and −24.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: BMO draws a moderate moat from Canadian scale and customer switching costs, yet this is offset by low innovation and standard governance.
Main risk: Canadian and US regulators could impose further fines or restrictions on BMO for disclosure violations or client screening practices, raising compliance costs and affecting customer acquisition in retail and commercial banking.
Bull case: BMO could strengthen its compliance frameworks and leverage its scale to navigate regulatory demands more efficiently than smaller rivals, maintaining stable operations across its diversified banking and wealth businesses.
Bear case: Repeated regulatory actions might force costly operational changes, limit certain client segments and erode trust, pressuring margins in BMO's core Canadian retail and US commercial activities over time.
BMO has expanded its U.S. operations into a meaningful part of its diversified banking model. The upcoming shift in leadership for those U.S. subsidiaries brings uncertainty around sustaining commercial loan growth and capital markets momentum. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so does the transition preserve execution strength or reveal new risks in cross-border integration?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)25.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)30.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.32× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.25× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow13.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.52× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)60· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)78· sector 67
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Montreal Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMO
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Montreal (BMO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $126.32 versus a price of $171.13, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMO?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Montreal is $126.32 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $171.13.
What is the quality score of BMO?
Bank of Montreal has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $126.32 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $109.84, optimistic scenario $185.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Montreal stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $126.32, about 26% lower versus a price of $171.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $109.84, optimistic scenario $185.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Bank of Montreal reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Bank of Montreal pay a dividend?
Bank of Montreal currently shows a dividend yield of 3.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Montreal would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMO use?
Our models discount Bank of Montreal at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Montreal that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Montreal (BMO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Montreal grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Montreal (BMO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Montreal (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.94 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Montreal produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Montreal it is $126.32 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $171.13. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Montreal stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, BMO trades above its calculated fair value: price $171.13, fair value $126.32, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($171.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($126.32). For Bank of Montreal the two are $44.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Montreal worth?
The market values Bank of Montreal at about $116B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $171.13; our models calculate a fair value of $126.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMO?
Our models span a range for Bank of Montreal: cautious scenario $109.84, base $126.32, optimistic $185.51 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $171.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BMO?
Bank of Montreal trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $126.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BMO?
The PEG ratio of Bank of Montreal is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Montreal (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMO from its 52-week high?
Bank of Montreal trades at $171.13, about 8% below its 52-week high of $185.81 and 46% above the low of $117.11 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $126.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Montreal?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Montreal stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $171.13, calculated fair value $126.32 (−26%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMO calculated?
We run Bank of Montreal through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $126.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Montreal itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $171.13. Our model-based fair value is $126.32, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Montreal right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of Montreal (BMO) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of Montreal grew +3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of Montreal
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Montreal is $116B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Montreal is 2.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Montreal are $8.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Montreal is 3.9% (payout 75.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The net margin of Bank of Montreal is 11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Montreal is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Montreal is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
The operating margin of Bank of Montreal is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Revenue at Bank of Montreal is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Montreal (BMO)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Montreal are growing −24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank of Montreal (BMO) carry?
The net debt of Bank of Montreal is $345B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 40.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026