Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cardinal Health Inc stock $163, price $268, that is 39.2% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.44 – $267.82 · fair‑value band $121.89 – $203.55 · the $267.82 price screens above the $162.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Cardinal Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare services and products company in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions, and Global Medical Products and Distribution.
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The company provides customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, physician offices, and patients in the home.
It distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical, and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products.
The company also provides services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and healthcare providers for specialty pharmaceutical products; pharmacy management services to hospitals; operates pharmacies, including pharmacies in community health centers; and repackages generic pharmaceuticals and over-the-counter healthcare products.
In addition, it manufactures, sources, and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical, and laboratory products and devices that include exam and surgical gloves; needles, syringe, and sharps disposals; compression, incontinence, nutritional delivery, and wound care products; single-use surgical drapes, gowns, and apparel products; fluid suction and collection systems; urology products; operating room supply products; and electrode product lines.
Further, the company distributes a range of national brand products, including medical, surgical, and laboratory products; provides supply chain services and solutions to hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and other healthcare providers; and assembles and sells sterile and non-sterile procedure kits.
Additionally, it manufactures, prepares, and delivers radiopharmaceuticals; and optimizes direct shipments through integrated technology solutions. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) currently trades at $267.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $162.84, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $297.65 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the $267.82 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $38.45, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $121.89 (bear) to $203.55 (bull), the price of $267.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cardinal Health Inc reported revenue of $254B in FY2026 versus $181B in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $63.5B Large · P/E ratio 36.2 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) $7.39 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at −39%, CAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$121.89Fair Value $162.84Bull$203.55
Price $267.82 · Downside -39.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $59.6M and none bought.
SaleJason M. HollarChief Executive Officer124,529 shares at $235.89$29.4MAug 19, 2026
SaleMary C. SchererChief Accounting Officer2,302 shares at $237.39$546,473Aug 19, 2026
SaleAaron E AltChief Financial Officer2× since Feb 18, 2026: 44,328 shares, avg. $235.77$10.5MAug 18, 2026
SaleJessica L MayerChief Legal/Compliance Officer29,436 shares at $236.19$7.0MAug 18, 2026
SaleStephen M MasonCEO, GMPD Segment35,000 shares at $236.40$8.3MAug 18, 2026
SaleDeborah WeitzmanCEO, PSS Segment7,354 shares at $235.45$1.7MAug 18, 2026
SaleMichelle D. GreeneChief Information Officer2× since Feb 27, 2026: 14,396 shares, avg. $234.34$3.4MAug 18, 2026
SalePatricia Hemingway HallDirector4,000 shares at $229.72$918,880Feb 6, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
≈ +39.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
From 2015 to 2026, about 85% of the growth in earnings per share came from share buybacks, and equity is negative: the buybacks are partly paid with debt. That cannot be repeated indefinitely.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +38.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 28.3% / 6.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
2026 sits 110% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 2.08 per share, median 4.18 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.2% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale from key retail partnerships delivers steady volumes in pharmaceutical distribution, yet weak profitability, limited moat signals and high leverage constrain overall business quality.
Main risk: A reduction or loss of business from CVS Health, which accounts for 28 percent of revenue, could cut volumes and pressure margins in the core pharmaceutical distribution segment.
Bull case: By expanding specialty platforms, at-home solutions and physician management services, Cardinal Health could broaden its customer base and offset any pressure from its largest retail relationship.
Bear case: Should CVS reduce purchases or end the relationship after the current term, Cardinal Health could experience a material drop in distribution volumes that proves difficult to replace at similar scale.
Cardinal Health's pharmaceutical distribution rests on a few large retail relationships that deliver scale and steady volumes. The binding extension of its CVS agreement through 2032 secures that arrangement and supports reaffirmed earnings guidance, yet our models continue to see the stock as overvalued. Will the added visibility from this long-term tie ultimately ease margin pressures across the broader medical products business, or will concentration risks keep growth capped?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.2× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.25× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cardinal Health Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAH
Frequently asked questions
Is Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $162.84 versus a price of $267.82, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAH?
Our model-based fair value for Cardinal Health Inc is $162.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $267.82.
What is the quality score of CAH?
Cardinal Health Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $162.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $121.89, optimistic scenario $203.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cardinal Health Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $162.84, about 39% lower versus a price of $267.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $121.89, optimistic scenario $203.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Cardinal Health Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $254B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Cardinal Health Inc pay a dividend?
Cardinal Health Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cardinal Health Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAH use?
Our models discount Cardinal Health Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cardinal Health Inc that is +0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cardinal Health Inc grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cardinal Health Inc (+0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.13 %: that much free cash flow Cardinal Health Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cardinal Health Inc it is $162.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $267.82. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cardinal Health Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CAH trades above its calculated fair value: price $267.82, fair value $162.84, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($267.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($162.84). For Cardinal Health Inc the two are $104.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cardinal Health Inc worth?
The market values Cardinal Health Inc at about $63.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $267.82; our models calculate a fair value of $162.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAH?
Our models span a range for Cardinal Health Inc: cautious scenario $121.89, base $162.84, optimistic $203.55 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $267.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAH?
Cardinal Health Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $162.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 28.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CAH?
The PEG ratio of Cardinal Health Inc is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cardinal Health Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAH from its 52-week high?
Cardinal Health Inc trades at $267.82, at its 52-week high of $267.82 and 47% above the low of $181.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $162.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cardinal Health Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cardinal Health Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $267.82, calculated fair value $162.84 (−39%), Quality Score 66/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAH calculated?
We run Cardinal Health Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $162.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Cardinal Health Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $267.82. Our model-based fair value is $162.84, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cardinal Health Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($203.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) come from?
Earnings per share at Cardinal Health Inc grew +4.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin −8.3 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cardinal Health Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The market capitalisation of Cardinal Health Inc is $63.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cardinal Health Inc is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Earnings per share at Cardinal Health Inc are $7.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The dividend yield of Cardinal Health Inc is 0.8% (payout 27.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The net margin of Cardinal Health Inc is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cardinal Health Inc is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
The operating margin of Cardinal Health Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Revenue at Cardinal Health Inc is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)?
Earnings per share at Cardinal Health Inc are growing +68.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) carry?
The net debt of Cardinal Health Inc is $5.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026