Calbee Inc (CLBEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Calbee Inc stock $4.34, price $5.10, that is 14.9% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.07 – $6.57 · fair‑value band $2.96 – $5.65 · the $5.10 price screens above the $4.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Calbee, Inc. engages in the production and sale of snacks and other food products in Japan, North America, Greater China, Thailand, Singapore, Australia, rest of Asia, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, and internationally.
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It offers potato-based, flour-based, corn-and bean-based, and other food snacks, as well as wheat, cereals, and granola.
The company markets its products under the Potato Chips, JagaRico, Harvest Snaps, Honey Butter Chip, Kappa Ebisen, Seabrook, Sapporo Potato, Sayaendo, Jagabee, and the Frugra brands. It sells its products through e-commerce and retail stores.
Calbee, Inc. was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Calbee Inc (CLBEY) currently trades at $5.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.34, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.65 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.10 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.52, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.96 (bear) to $5.65 (bull), the price of $5.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Calbee Inc reported revenue of ¥361B in FY2026 versus ¥245B in FY2022, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.4B in FY2026, compounding +0.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −15%, CLBEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.96Fair Value $4.34Bull$5.65
Price $5.10 · Downside -14.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1405 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 1.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.2% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Calbee's main strength is its push into Asian markets beyond Japan through new product launches, while its primary weakness remains the pressure on packaged foods margins from commodity costs and competition.
Main risk: Ongoing pressure from commodity costs and competition threatens to squeeze Calbee's packaged foods margins, limiting the ability of overseas growth to ease domestic constraints.
Calbee is rolling out a new multilayer corn chip brand in Thailand through its Indonesian joint venture, targeting younger consumers via convenience stores first. This international push could expand its footprint in Asia-Oceania beyond the mature Japanese market, but packaged foods margins remain under pressure from commodity costs and competition. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will overseas growth deliver enough to ease those domestic constraints?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Calbee Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CLBEY
Frequently asked questions
Is Calbee Inc (CLBEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.34 versus a price of $5.10, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CLBEY?
Our model-based fair value for Calbee Inc is $4.34 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.10.
What is the quality score of CLBEY?
Calbee Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.34 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $5.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calbee Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.34, about 15% lower versus a price of $5.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $5.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Calbee Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥345B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Calbee Inc pay a dividend?
Calbee Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Calbee Inc (CLBEY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Calbee Inc has a dividend yield of 2.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 44.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.58 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calbee Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CLBEY use?
Our models discount Calbee Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Calbee Inc that is +16.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Calbee Inc (CLBEY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Calbee Inc grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Calbee Inc (CLBEY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Calbee Inc (+16.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.30 %: that much free cash flow Calbee Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calbee Inc it is $4.34 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $5.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Calbee Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CLBEY trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.10, fair value $4.34, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CLBEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.34). For Calbee Inc the two are $0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calbee Inc worth?
The market values Calbee Inc at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $5.10; our models calculate a fair value of $4.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CLBEY?
Our models span a range for Calbee Inc: cautious scenario $2.96, base $4.34, optimistic $5.65 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $5.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CLBEY?
Calbee Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.34 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 21.2. Other multiples: PEG 7.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CLBEY?
The PEG ratio of Calbee Inc is 7.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calbee Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CLBEY from its 52-week high?
Calbee Inc trades at $5.10, at its 52-week high of $5.10 and 22% above the low of $4.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calbee Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calbee Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $5.10, calculated fair value $4.34 (−15%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CLBEY calculated?
We run Calbee Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Calbee Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.10. Our model-based fair value is $4.34, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Calbee Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.96 to $5.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Calbee Inc (CLBEY) come from?
Earnings per share at Calbee Inc grew +2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −3.0 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Calbee Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The market capitalisation of Calbee Inc is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Calbee Inc is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Earnings per share at Calbee Inc are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The dividend yield of Calbee Inc is 2.1% (payout 46.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The net margin of Calbee Inc is 5.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Calbee Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Calbee Inc is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
The operating margin of Calbee Inc is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Revenue at Calbee Inc is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Calbee Inc (CLBEY)?
Earnings per share at Calbee Inc are growing +18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Calbee Inc (CLBEY) hold?
Calbee Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥13.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026