Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc stock $16.21, price $23.47, that is 30.9% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.78 – $24.65 · fair‑value band $13.96 – $23.40 · the $23.47 price screens above the $16.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Daiichi Life Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Japan, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Domestic Insurance Business, Overseas Insurance Business, and Other Business.
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It offers educational endowment insurance, individual annuity, variable product, investment trust, lump-sum payment products, group annuity plans, succession products, medical and cancer protection, saving-type disease protection, health promotion, health protection (palliative care), group insurance, death protection, nursing care and dementia protection, and income and disease protection.
The company was formerly known as Dai-ichi Life Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Daiichi Life Group, Inc. in April 2026. The company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) currently trades at $23.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.21, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.27 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $23.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.79, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.96 (bear) to $23.40 (bull), the price of $23.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥10.3T in FY2026 versus ¥7.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥463B in FY2026, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $42.8B Large · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $1.98 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −31%, DLICY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.96Fair Value $16.21Bull$23.40
Price $23.47 · Downside -30.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.3% vs 11.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
2026 sits 54% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.7% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Overseas growth in Australia and Vietnam supports profit targets, yet limited moat signals and low margins remain the core constraint on business quality.
Main risk: Integration risks and capital demands from overseas acquisitions such as Panin Life and the M&G partnership could pressure margins and limit domestic profit stability.
Dai-ichi Life is expanding overseas through deals like the Panin Life stake in Indonesia and the M&G partnership in Europe, while domestic adjusted profits are expected to remain flat. International operations in Australia and Vietnam are set to drive the next record profit target. Will these moves generate enough growth to offset integration risks and capital demands, or will they add pressure at current valuations?
Compare Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−30.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.6% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.59× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow8.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA2.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.83× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DLICY
Frequently asked questions
Is Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.21 versus a price of $23.47, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DLICY?
Our model-based fair value for Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is $16.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.47.
What is the quality score of DLICY?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.96, optimistic scenario $23.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.21, about 31% lower versus a price of $23.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.96, optimistic scenario $23.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DLICY use?
Our models discount Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc that is -17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (-17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.19 %: that much free cash flow Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc it is $16.21 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $23.47. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DLICY trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.47, fair value $16.21, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DLICY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.21). For Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc the two are $7.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc at about $42.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $23.47; our models calculate a fair value of $16.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DLICY?
Our models span a range for Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $13.96, base $16.21, optimistic $23.40 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $23.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DLICY?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
What is the PEG ratio of DLICY?
The PEG ratio of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 0.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DLICY from its 52-week high?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc trades at $23.47, about 5% below its 52-week high of $24.65 and 78% above the low of $13.19 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $23.47, calculated fair value $16.21 (−31%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DLICY calculated?
We run Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $23.47. Our model-based fair value is $16.21, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) come from?
Earnings per share at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc grew +10.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The market capitalisation of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is $42.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Earnings per share at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc are $1.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The dividend yield of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 2.9% (payout 34.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The net margin of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 4.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
The operating margin of Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Revenue at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY)?
Earnings per share at Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc are growing +278% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc (DLICY) hold?
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥2.6T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026