Glencore PLC (GLEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Glencore PLC stock £3.10, price £5.16, that is 39.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.25 – £6.29 · fair‑value band £1.08 – £3.46 · the £5.16 price screens above the £3.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.
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It engages in the production and marketing of copper, cobalt, lead, nickel, zinc, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, aluminum, alumina, and iron ore; and coal, crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, as well as oil exploration and production and refining and distribution.
The company is also involved in marketing and distributing physical commodities sourced from third party producers to industrial consumers, including the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries.
In addition, the company provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Glencore PLC (GLEN) currently trades at £5.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.10, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £1.59 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the £5.16 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at £0.3500, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £1.08 (bear) to £3.46 (bull), the price of £5.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Glencore PLC reported revenue of $253B in FY2025 versus $204B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $371M in FY2025, compounding −47.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £61.8B Large · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) £0.3400 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, GLEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (£0.0300 to £4.65). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear£1.08Fair Value £3.10Bull£3.46
Price £5.16 · Downside -39.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1862 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income£1.59£1.63£1.7376
FCF DCF£0.5500£1.59£3.1874
Growth DCF£0.6000£1.55£2.9274
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF£0.5500£1.59£3.1874
Owner Earnings£0.9400£2.20£4.1072
5Y Revenue Exit£0.2700£1.20£2.3766
5Y EBITDA Exit£2.16£4.65£7.5273
10Y Revenue Exit£0.3000£1.17£2.2961
10Y EBITDA Exit£1.56£3.56£6.1865
10Y P/E Exitn/a£0.0800>£0.320061
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£0.1600£0.4500£0.580065
Lynch FV£0.2200£0.3100£0.400061
PEG = 1.0£0.2200£0.3100£0.400057
EPV£0.1600£0.4400£0.690068
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£0.7400£1.57£2.5766
DDM Multi-Stage£0.7400£1.17£1.6466
Multiples
P/E Multiple£0.3000£0.4000£0.510063
P/S Multiple£0.3000£0.4000£0.510058
P/B Multiple£2.66£3.55£4.4455
EV/EBITn/a£0.0300>£0.120061
EV/EBITDA£2.51£4.21£5.9065
EV/Revenuen/an/a£0.560050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£1.06£1.43£2.1354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF£0.6000£1.55£2.9274
Economic Profit
Residual Income£1.59£1.63£1.7376
ROIC Compounder£0.1600£0.4400£0.690068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E£0.2500£0.3500£0.460067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−39.3% vs −13.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.5% a year for the price and −4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Limited differentiation and low pricing power mark the core weakness of this commoditized mining business, while asset sales offer a potential cash-generation strength.
Main risk: Stricter limits on arsenic emissions could force costly upgrades or closure of the Horne copper smelter in Quebec and reduce processing capacity.
Bull case: Glencore could partner with governments or adopt advanced emission controls to keep key smelters running while its marketing arm captures volatility-driven profits in metals and energy.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory blocks and Chinese oversupply could force multiple smelter closures or sales and leave Glencore more exposed to raw mining volatility without processing buffers.
Glencore is advancing talks on multibillion-dollar asset sales in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kazakhstan that could unlock large cash returns next year, alongside marketing profits expected above five billion dollars. Production guidance remains unchanged, yet copper and steelmaking coal are tracking toward the lower end of ranges. Does the trading momentum outweigh the variability still present in the mining operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)48.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Glencore PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GLEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Glencore PLC (GLEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.10 versus a price of £5.16, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GLEN?
Our model-based fair value for Glencore PLC is £3.10 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.16.
What is the quality score of GLEN?
Glencore PLC has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.10 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.08, optimistic scenario £3.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Glencore PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.10, about 40% lower versus a price of £5.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.08, optimistic scenario £3.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Glencore PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $305B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Glencore PLC pay a dividend?
Glencore PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Glencore PLC (GLEN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Glencore PLC pays a dividend of £0.125 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.32 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Glencore PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +61.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GLEN use?
Our models discount Glencore PLC at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Glencore PLC that is +61.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Glencore PLC (GLEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Glencore PLC grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +61.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Glencore PLC (GLEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Glencore PLC (+61.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.48 %: that much free cash flow Glencore PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Glencore PLC it is £3.10 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of £5.16. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Glencore PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, GLEN trades above its calculated fair value: price £5.16, fair value £3.10, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.10). For Glencore PLC the two are £2.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Glencore PLC worth?
The market values Glencore PLC at about £61.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is £5.16; our models calculate a fair value of £3.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLEN?
Our models span a range for Glencore PLC: cautious scenario £1.08, base £3.10, optimistic £3.46 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price £5.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GLEN?
Glencore PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.10 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GLEN?
The PEG ratio of Glencore PLC is 0.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Glencore PLC (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLEN from its 52-week high?
Glencore PLC trades at £5.16, about 18% below its 52-week high of £6.29 and 57% above the low of £3.28 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Glencore PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Glencore PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price £5.16, calculated fair value £3.10 (−40%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLEN calculated?
We run Glencore PLC through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £3.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Glencore PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was £5.16. Our model-based fair value is £3.10, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Glencore PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£3.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (£1.08 to £3.46). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Glencore PLC (GLEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Glencore PLC grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Glencore PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The market capitalisation of Glencore PLC is £61.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Glencore PLC is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Earnings per share at Glencore PLC are £0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The dividend yield of Glencore PLC is 2.4% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The net margin of Glencore PLC is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Glencore PLC is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Glencore PLC is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
The operating margin of Glencore PLC is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Revenue at Glencore PLC is growing +48.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Glencore PLC (GLEN)?
Earnings per share at Glencore PLC are growing −60.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Glencore PLC (GLEN) carry?
The net debt of Glencore PLC is $39.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 12, 2026