Fortescue Ltd (FMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$56.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from A$13.97 (bear) to A$23.28 (bull), base A$18.62. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$9.46 – A$24.93 · fair‑value band A$13.97 – A$23.28 · the A$18.45 price screens below the A$18.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Fortescue Ltd (FMG) currently trades at A$18.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$18.62, implying the stock looks roughly 0.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Fortescue Ltd generated revenue of A$16.3B at a net margin of 22.9%. Revenue grew 10.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. Net debt stands at A$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$13.97 (bear case) to A$23.28 (bull case); at A$18.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at 1%, FMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$49.41) versus Asset-Based (A$4.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements.
Full company description
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing. The company was formerly known as Fortescue Metals Group Limited and changed its name to Fortescue Ltd in November 2023. Fortescue Ltd was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fortescue Ltd reported revenue of A$15.4B in FY2025 versus A$22.4B in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.4B in FY2025, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Watch FMG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fortescue shares fall as China reportedly restricts iron ore shipments (FSUGY)
- FORTESCUE AND CMB.TECH SIGN MILESTONE AGREEMENT FOR 12 AMMONIA BULKERS TO ACCELERATE ZERO-EMISSIONS SHIPPING
- How The Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Story Is Shifting With New Price Targets And Assumptions
- Why The Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Story Is Shifting As Analysts Reset Expectations
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 477 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,043,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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